Tuesday, November 23, 2010

JFK and Executive order 11110

On June 4, 1963, a little known attempt was made to strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the government at interest.

On that day President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the U.S. government the power to issue currency, without going through the Federal Reserve.
Mr. Kennedy's order gave the Treasury the power "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury." This meant that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation. In all, Kennedy brought nearly $4.3 billion in U.S. notes into circulation. The ramifications of this bill are enormous. 
With the stroke of a pen, Mr. Kennedy was on his way to putting the Federal Reserve Bank of New York out of business. If enough of these silver certificates were to come into circulation they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve notes.  This is because the silver certificates are backed by silver and the Federal Reserve notes are not backed by anything.
Executive Order 11110 could have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level, because it would have given the government the ability to repay its debt without going to the Federal Reserve and being charged interest in order to create the new money. Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S. the ability to create its own money backed by silver. 

After Mr. Kennedy was assassinated just five months later, no more silver certificates were issued. The Final Call has learned that the Executive Order was never repealed by any U.S. President through an Executive Order and is still valid. Why then has no president utilized it?
Virtually all of the nearly $6 trillion in debt has been created since 1963, and if a U.S. president had utilized Executive Order 11110 the debt would be nowhere near the current level.
Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to future presidents who would think to eliminate the U.S. debt by eliminating the Federal Reserve's control over the creation of money.
Mr. Kennedy challenged the government of money by challenging the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt -- war and the creation of money by a privately owned central bank.
His efforts to have all troops out of Vietnam by 1965 and Executive Order 11110 would have severely cut into the profits and control of the New York banking establishment."  

Ponzi end is beginning.

Well, folks, it's official - mark November 22, 2010 in your calendars - today is the day the Ponzi starts in earnest. With today's $8.3 billion POMO monetization, the Fed's official holdings of US Treasury securities now amount to $891.3 billion, which is higher than the second largest holder of US debt: China, which as of September 30 held $884 billion, and Japan, with $864 billion. The purists will claim that the TIC data is as of September 30, and that as the weekly custodial account shows UST buying continues the data is likely not correct. They will be wrong: with the Fed now buying about $30 billion per week, or about $120 billion per month, for the foreseeable future and beyond, it would mean that China would need to buy a comparable amount to be in the standing. It won't. In other words, the Ponzi operation is now complete, and the Fed's monetization of US debt has made it not only the largest holder of such debt, but made external funding checks and balances in the guise of indirect auction bidding, irrelevant. For what tends to happen next in comparable case studies, please read the Dying of Money. And congratulations to China for finally not being the one having the most to lose on a DV01 basis on that day when the inevitable surge in interest rates finally happens. That honor is now strictly reserved for America's taxpayers.


Thursday, November 18, 2010

Another BS Employment report, and now they counter themselves in their own article.

Below is Bloomberg- I have inserted and highlighted in alternate text



Better than Projected
Jobless benefits applications were projected to rise to 441,000, according to the median forecast of 46 economists in the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 426,000 to 455,000. The Labor Department revised the prior week’s figure up to 437,000 from the previously reported 435,000.
Government offices were closed on Nov. 11 for the Veterans Day holiday, which typically translates to a drop in claims before seasonal adjustment. The decrease this year matched government projections, leading to little change in the adjusted data, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were being released.
Today’s report corresponds to the week the Labor Department surveys businesses to calculate the monthly payroll figures. The next jobs report is due Dec. 3.
The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, dropped to 443,000, the lowest level since September 2008, the report showed.
Continuing Claims
The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell by 48,000 in the week ended Nov. 6 to 4.3 million.

The above statement is supposed to be viewed as a positive until you read the one below.

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended and emergency benefits under federal programs.

And...what happened to all those people who used up their initial unempoyment benefits and their continuing unemployment benefits, well...

Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 121,000 to 4.93 million in the week ended Oct. 30.

So, in essence, not only did initial jobless claims go up but the far more critical emergency/extended, last ditch benefit collectors rose by 121,000.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits fell to 3.4 percent in the week ended Nov. 6, from 3.5 percent in the prior week.

Forty-two states and territories reported an increase in claims, while 11 reported a decrease. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to fall as job growth -- measured by the monthly employment report -- accelerates. That relationship has broken down in recent months as some companies continue to cut staff, while others expand, pointing to an uneven recovery.

The Municipal Bond bust is rearing its head

  • California Delays Issuance Of $10 Billion In RANs
  • Philadelphia Downgraded By Moody's (A1 To A2)

  • Moody's Downgrades San Francisco To Aa2 From Aa1

The game is over

From Knight Research. Presented without commentary.
The Game Is Over
The simple story is this: We believe the structural and cyclical terms of global trade have finally reached their tipping point. This will catalyze a wholesale change in sentiment and a historic repositioning of risk assets. The emerging market global growth story is over.
  • In meetings with clients throughout October, we began emphasizing our growing concerns about the nearly ubiquitous confidence the financial markets—and for that matter, global leaders and their body politic—have in China; and by extension, the rest of the emerging market story, commodities, and the direction of foreign exchange cross-rates.
  • Not surprisingly, our concerns were met with varying degrees of resistance; but the overall consensus clearly favored a very bullish, asymmetric outcome over both the near and intermediate terms. When pressed as to our own sense of timing and specific catalysts  for broad-based trend reversal, candidly we were unclear. Our sense then, was that the higher and faster the commodity markets pushed, the sooner the reversal would occur. But we have now clarified our view.
  • In just the past several weeks, we believe the data and government actions out of China, the back-up in US interest rates, the Fed’s emphatic commitment to QE2, intensifying pressures across the EU, broadly rising commodity prices, government efforts to control hot money flows, have finally pushed the global terms of trade to their tipping point.
  • And now, as is evident by the flight to safety, and growing evidence that China will soon try and effect price controls in addition to raising interest rates and significantly changing the rules for their vast network of Local Government Funding Vehicles (LGFVs); the writing is on the wall. The game is over.
  • The simple story is this: The structural and cyclical terms of global trade have reached their tipping point which will effect a wholesale change in sentiment and a historic repositioning of risk assets.
  • So what do we consider the “terms of global trade”? Structurally, per our top chart, they are the intersection of Government Policy (viz., rule of law, market systems, trade law, etc.,) Resource and Industry (viz., natural resources, labor/demographic pools, industrial advantages, import dependencies, etc.,) and Economic Security (viz., the sovereign’s competitive standing, the relative power/needs of the citizenry, the mandate/control of the government, etc.) And cyclically, (as represented by the light blue, bold arrows) the terms of trade are defined by the intersection of foreign exchange rates, commodity prices, and the cost and availability of trade finance.
  • And in our assessment given:
  1. The structural breakdown of the credit and labor markets in the developed world and the anemic outlook for nominal GDP growth
  2. The immaturity of the developing world and their vulnerability to credit shocks and uncontrollable inflation
  3. China’s dependence upon non-economic, and unsustainable credit expansion to maintain growth far beyond natural export and domestic demand, and
  4. Asia’s dependence upon imported energy and agriculture
the game is over. Presently, we believe that the broad-based resurgence of investor confidence in the emerging market and secular bull market in commodities will end badly; proving that the rally which commenced in Q2 2009, was in fact an “echo bubble” facilitated by massive—and unsustainable—stimuli from the Chinese Government
  • And although such cataclysmic shocks rarely result in rhythmic, straight line fractures, the chain of price adjustments should be  relatively clear. Accordingly, we expect a shockingly powerful rally in the dollar, broadbased weakness across the commodity sector, a dramatic widening of emerging market credit spreads, and what could prove to be a stampede of hot fund flows out of the emerging markets.
  • We appreciate both the gravity and the brevity of this note; but then again, the story is simple.
We believe that the end of the Great Consumer Credit Cycle and the vast structural differences in the terms of trade between the United States, the EU, and China, have finally caught up with the secular bull thesis on Emerging Market and Commodities. Quite ironically, the Fed’s aggressive policies will likely prove to be the catalyst which breaks China’s unbridled expansion of credit and non-economic growth, ushering in a wholesale rebalancing of risk assets.

Monday, November 15, 2010

John Paulson and David Tepper dumping everything right after telling everyone to buy everything....Figures

John Paulson's September 30 13F has been released. Total long stock holdings reported amounted to $22.9 billion, unchanged from June 30. As expected, and following hot in the footsteps of David Tepper, Paulson dumped nearly 20% of his Bank of America and Citi stakes (30 million shares and 82.7 million shares respectively), sold about 11% of Wells Fargo and Capital One, and dumped his entire 1.1 million Goldman position. Keep in mind all this was before BofA stock got crushed in October: the next 13F will be even more interesting. Other divestitures included two thirds of his stake in Family Dollar Stores, a third of his position in Starwood Hotels, and over half of his Mead Johnson Nutrition position. While Paulson did not touch much of his gold exposure (he did sell 6% of Anglogold Ashanti), he kept GLD is biggest position (for the gold denominated holdings) at $4 billion, and added about 17 new positions, the biggest of which were Anadarko (13.4 MM shares), Hewitt Associates (7.6MM shares), NBTY (6.1 MM shares), McAfee (5 MM shares), and then some notable Merger arbs: Genzyme, Burger King and Potash, in which he added 500,000 shares. Either Paulson will now have to like Potash on its fundamentals, or he will have to sell this position. Oddly enough, today's market showed remarkable unwillingness on behalf of the arbs to dump their POT holdings. One wonders how long this will continue. Additionally, Paulson sold his entire half a billion dollar stake in Exxon, a position that he held for just one quarter. In other news, obviously, the love affair with financials is at least partially over, and at this point the future of the Recovery Fund may well be in doubt if even Paulson does not see the upside case for names such as BofA which a year ago he had a PT of $30 as of 2012.

Quantitative Easing, the crookedest scam in history.

  • Bernanke declares $600B of further asset purchases to follow the $1.2Trillion, but wait a minute
  • Instead of buying from the Treasury Dept. he buys from the market
  • The buying in the open market is controlled by FRBNY
  • FRBNY is controlled by William Dudley
  • William Dudley is a 21 year Goldman Sachs veteran
  • QE is designed to fight deflation
  • We are in the middle of the largest commodity boom in history with all consumables, metals, education, health care and energy costs skyrocketing. So, the CPI is a basket of garbage that does not indicate true inflation.
  • We are in the middle of the greatest recession since 1929 and the second shoe may yet fall
  • Unemployment after BLS manipulation is at 9.6% but without is truly at more like 17%
So to summarize the above, the Fed in its idiocy is essentially working on creating a hyperinflationary environment using an ex-employee of  the biggest crooks on Wall St. to mastermind asset sales to themselves, and simultaneously creating a market where by trashing the dollar they will make goods that people need and have no money to buy, more expensive.
These people are unemployed, some with little future prospect of getting employed and they are fast becoming aware that their Govt is working against them or at least that is their notion.

This should lead to some interesting occurrences when certain financial lines of affordability are crossed.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Pump and Dump. Its what Hedgies do after steering the crowd like Davis Tepper did on CNBC.

Guess who, after on September 24 David Tepper almost screamed that he was "balls to the wall long" and EVERYTHING was about to go up on QE2, you were very likely buying shares Bank of America and Citigroup from? Why, David Tepper, that's who. In Tepper's just released Q3 13F, the Appaloosa fund manager disclosed that in the quarter ended September 30, one week after his pompous, self-serving speech on CNBC served as a reason to pump the market up by almost 2%, he sold 18% of his BofA holdings (his largest holding both at June 30 and September 30), 11% of Citi, 19% of Wells Fargo, 19% of Fifth Third, 19% of Capital One, 75% of his then $157 million Hartford Financial position, and lighten up on pretty much all of his other financial positions. And congratulations to CNBC for serving as the medium which David Tepper manipulated to his advantage and dump about 20% of his financial stake, which as of June 30 was his biggest, at 56% of total holdings.
Some of the new additions include Hewlett Packard, UAL, a Semiconductor ETF, Applied Materials, Yahoo and a whole lot of other tech. But most poetically, he also bought $157 million of Cisco. Oops.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Here comes the shaft...no grease needed. Eliminate all deductions and screw the old and sick. Hell, they're no use anyway, right ?

Following is a summary of the proposal put forward by the commission's co-chairmen, former Republican Senator Alan Simpson and former Democratic White
House official Erskine Bowles:

Spending Cuts
- Would reduce discretionary spending (programs like defense and law enforcement that are set by Congress each year) in fiscal 2012 to 2010 levels; impose 1 percent cuts in each of the next three fiscal years
- In 2015, defense spending would be $100 billion lower and nondefense spending also $100 billion lower than envisioned in the White House's current budget
scenario
- Eventually bring government spending down to 21 percent of gross domestic product, from its current level of 24 percent of the economy
- Automatic cuts would take effect at the end of each year if Congress exceeds spending caps
- Set up bipartisan committee to eliminate outdated and inefficient programs
- Stretch out budget cycle over two years
- Sample cuts include: freeze pay for federal workers; reduce overseas military bases by one-third; cut federal workforce by 10 percent; slow growth of foreign
aid
Overhaul Tax Code
- Would eliminate all of the $1.1 trillion exemptions currently in the tax code, such as the mortgage-interest deduction and the earned-income tax credit
- Lower and simplify individual income-tax rates: 8 percent for those with annual incomes below $70,000; 14 percent for those with incomes up to $210,000;
and 23 percent for incomes above that level
- Lower corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 26 percent
- Treat dividends and capital gains as ordinary income
- Set aside $80 billion for deficit reduction
- Gradually raise gas tax by 15 cents starting in 2013 to pay for transportation spending
- Abolish the alternative minimum tax
Reduce Health Care Costs
- Would pay doctors and other providers less for seeing patients under government programs like Medicare and Medicaid
- Cap damages in malpractice suits
- Require Medicare participants to pay more costs themselves
- Require lower costs for brand-name drugs covered by government programs
- Expand successful cost-containment programs
- Strengthen independent oversight board
- If costs grow more than 1 percent faster than the economy after 2020, require president to propose further cost cuts or a robust public health insurance
option
Other Savings
- Would reduce farm subsidies by $3 billion per year
- Revamp consumer price index, used to calculate benefit increases, to better reflect actual rate of inflation

National Inflation Association Estimates. Highlights. Read if you believe inflation is 4%

  • In February of 1974, wheat reached a high of $6.45 per
    bushel, which based on the CPI is $29.85 per bushel in
    today’s dollars. Based on the way NIA calculates real price
    inflation, by eliminating geometric weighting and hedonics,
    wheat’s real inflation adjusted high in February of 1974 was
    $97.37 per bushel. NIA expects wheat to reach new inflation
    adjusted highs this decade and if so, the average price for
    a 24 oz loaf of the cheapest store brand of wheat bread in
    your grocery store will likely rise to around $23.05.
  • The median U.S. home is currently worth $171,700 or
    6,550 ounces of silver. After the inflationary crisis of the
    1970s, the median U.S. home declined to below 1,000
    ounces of silver. NIA believes that because this decade’s
    Real Estate bubble was so large, Real Estate prices will
    likely overcorrect to the downside and the median U.S.
    home will be worth only 500 ounces of silver at some point
    this decade. Therefore, if you buy just $13,000 worth of
    physical silver today, NIA believes you will be able to pay
    cash (without any mortgage) for an average American home
    within the next 5 to 10 years.
  • In November of 1974, sugar reached a high of $0.65 per
    pound, which based on the CPI is
    $2.757 per pound in today’s
    dollars. Based on the way
    NIA calculates real price
    inflation, by eliminating
    geometric weighting
    and hedonics, sugar’s real
    inflation adjusted high in
    November of 1974 was
    $8.99 per pound. NIA
    expects sugar to reach new
    inflation adjusted highs this
    decade and if so, the average
    price for a 32 oz package
    of Domino Granulated Sugar in your
    grocery store will likely rise to around $62.21.
  • In November of 1977, orange
    juice reached a high of $2.20 per
    pound, which based on the CPI is
    $7.76 per pound in today’s dollars.
    Based on the way NIA calculates
    real price inflation, by eliminating
    geometric weighting and hedonics,
    orange juice’s real inflation
    adjusted high in November of 1977
    was $25.33 per pound. NIA expects
    orange juice to reach new inflation
    adjusted highs this decade and if so,
    the average price for a 64 fl oz container
    of Minute Maid 100% Pure Squeezed Orange Juice in
    your grocery store will likely rise to around $45.71.

Friday, November 5, 2010

US Monetary Policy is "clueless" per German Finance Minister

The United States's plans to pump more money into the economy will not solve the country's problems, Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday, adding that the world needed U.S. leadership.
"With all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless," Schaeuble said at a conference.
"(The problem) is not a shortage of liquidity. It's not that the the Americans haven't pumped enough liquidity into the market and now to say let's pump more into the market is not going to solve their problems."
In addition, the European Union is on track to develop a reasonable permanent crisis management mechanism, Schaeuble said, adding its introduction would likely not disturb financial markets.
"I believe we are on track to develop a reasonable mechanism in the EU," Schaeuble told a conference in Berlin. "Market participants have long anticipated and are expecting it."

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Unemployment claims rise 20K. Last week revised up AGAIN by 3K.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 457,000, the Labor Department said, reversing the prior week's decline.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 443,000 from the previously reported 434,000. The government revised the prior week's figure up to 437,000.
Separately, productivity rose 1.9 percent while unit labor costs fell 0.1 percent.
The report came a day after the Federal Reserve announced it would buy an additional $600 billion worth government bonds by the middle of next year to spur the lackluster economic recovery and boost employment.
The second round of asset purchases is intended to push interest rates further down, thereby stimulating domestic demand and prevent the current low inflation environment from spiraling into a damaging bout of deflation.
The claims data has little influence on October's employment report due on Friday as it falls outside the survey period. The government is expected to report that nonfarm payrolls increased 60,000 last month, likely the first expansion since May, after dropping 95,000 in September, according to a Reuters survey.
A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the claims data and described the report as fairly clean.
Last week, the four-week average of new jobless claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, rose 2,000 to 456,000.
The number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 42,000 to 4.34 million in the week ended Oct. 23, the lowest level since the week ending Nov. 22, 2008. The prior week's figure was revised up to 4.38 million.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast so-called continuing claims rising to 4.38 million from a previously reported 4.36 million.
The number of people on emergency benefits increased 198,579 to 3.98 million in the week ended Oct. 16.

Bernanke from CNBC

Bernanke also beat back worries about whether asset purchases and their effect on financial markets can have a discernible positive effect on U.S. economic activity, which expanded at a meager 2 percent annualized clip in the third quarter.
By boosting the prices of stocks and corporate bonds, he said, the Fed's bond buying can - and already has to some extent - stimulate the sort of investment that will begin to put a dent on the nation's 9.6 percent unemployment rate.
"Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth," he said. "Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending."
Still, Bernanke acknowledged that the idea of conducting monetary policy through longer-dated asset buying is relatively unfamiliar, adding that this has caused the Fed to proceed cautiously.
He reiterated the notion that the central bank has the tools it needs to withdraw monetary stimulus if inflation looks to be rising too rapidly.

Bernanke article from Washington Post. Admits to hiking stock market to create an illusion of economic recovery. Highlighted below

This article will live to haunt Bernanke.




What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability


By Ben S. Bernanke
Thursday, November 4, 2010

Two years have passed since the worst financial crisis since the 1930s dealt a body blow to the world economy. Working with policymakers at home and abroad, the Federal Reserve responded with strong and creative measures to help stabilize the financial system and the economy. Among the Fed's responses was a dramatic easing of monetary policy - reducing short-term interest rates nearly to zero. The Fed also purchased more than a trillion dollars' worth of Treasury securities and U.S.-backed mortgage-related securities, which helped reduce longer-term interest rates, such as those for mortgages and corporate bonds. These steps helped end the economic free fall and set the stage for a resumption of economic growth in mid-2009.
Notwithstanding the progress that has been made, when the Fed's monetary policymaking committee - the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - met this week to review the economic situation, we could hardly be satisfied. The Federal Reserve's objectives - its dual mandate, set by Congress - are to promote a high level of employment and low, stable inflation. Unfortunately, the job market remains quite weak; the national unemployment rate is nearly 10 percent, a large number of people can find only part-time work, and a substantial fraction of the unemployed have been out of work six months or longer. The heavy costs of unemployment include intense strains on family finances, more foreclosures and the loss of job skills.

Today, most measures of underlying inflation are running somewhat below 2 percent, or a bit lower than the rate most Fed policymakers see as being most consistent with healthy economic growth in the long run. Although low inflation is generally good, inflation that is too low can pose risks to the economy - especially when the economy is struggling. In the most extreme case, very low inflation can morph into deflation (falling prices and wages), which can contribute to long periods of economic stagnation.

Even absent such risks, low and falling inflation indicate that the economy has considerable spare capacity, implying that there is scope for monetary policy to support further gains in employment without risking economic overheating. The FOMC decided this week that, with unemployment high and inflation very low, further support to the economy is needed. With short-term interest rates already about as low as they can go, the FOMC agreed to deliver that support by purchasing additional longer-term securities, as it did in 2008 and 2009. The FOMC intends to buy an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by mid-2011 and will continue to reinvest repayments of principal on its holdings of securities, as it has been doing since August.


This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.

While they have been used successfully in the United States and elsewhere, purchases of longer-term securities are a less familiar monetary policy tool than cutting short-term interest rates. That is one reason the FOMC has been cautious, balancing the costs and benefits before acting. We will review the purchase program regularly to ensure it is working as intended and to assess whether adjustments are needed as economic conditions change.
Although asset purchases are relatively unfamiliar as a tool of monetary policy, some concerns about this approach are overstated. Critics have, for example, worried that it will lead to excessive increases in the money supply and ultimately to significant increases in inflation.
Our earlier use of this policy approach had little effect on the amount of currency in circulation or on other broad measures of the money supply, such as bank deposits. Nor did it result in higher inflation. We have made all necessary preparations, and we are confident that we have the tools to unwind these policies at the appropriate time. The Fed is committed to both parts of its dual mandate and will take all measures necessary to keep inflation low and stable.
The Federal Reserve cannot solve all the economy's problems on its own. That will take time and the combined efforts of many parties, including the central bank, Congress, the administration, regulators and the private sector. But the Federal Reserve has a particular obligation to help promote increased employment and sustain price stability. Steps taken this week should help us fulfill that obligation.

The writer is chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

26th Sequential Week Of Outflows From Domestic Equity Mutual Funds

 





























After last week's minimal outflow of "just" 218 million, Bob Pisani could already taste victory and preemptively claimed that there already were inflows into stock mutual funds. Luckily, today's ICI data puts an end to yet another piece of blatant CNBC propaganda. For the week ended October 27, ICI registered a $2.9 billion outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, making 26 straight weeks, or half a year, of neverending outflows. This brings the total to $84 billion. But fear not: now that the Fed will be buying $110 billion worth of stock via the Primary Dealers, courtesy of over 100 POMO operations over the next 8 months, it is more than clear who will be buying any and all stock in the stock market. In the meantime, the HFTs, the PDs, and Brian Sack will be riddled with so many hot potatoes they need to dump to idiot retailers (and good luck dumping that GM POS to retail investors), Wall Street will soon become the world's biggest potato farm.


Two thing  are now clear: i) mutual funds will very soon run out of cash unless the Fed manages to keep asset prices rising higher than outflows can redeem capital, and ii) the Fed will never stop monetizing everything. After USTs, the deranged madman will buy MBS, then ETFs, then stocks, then Plasma TVs, then hookers, then lapdances, then toenail clippers, then toilet paper, then the most worthless thing of it all- dollars themselves, and then, finally, it will be all over.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

No matter which group of Blamers/Complainers or finger pointers is at the reins..there really is no difference in how this country moves forward.

As election results gradually trickle in, the following chart from John Palmer presents one of the best compilations of how the government and the economy have coexisted over the past 100 years. To say that there has been much of a difference under either regime would be an overstatement: the end goal has always been the debasement of the dollar, the incurrence of more debt, the expansion of the economy courtesy of ever cheaper debt-created money, all the while nothing has actually changed. As Palmer notes, "this historical perspective visualizes economic trends and spending patterns, during good times and bad. Present-day assumptions regarding core party values have had major shifts over time, and the ridiculous extremes in voter alignment, lobbying, and legislative action are due for revision. As a basis for future shift, this data can educate a presumptive public, empowering citizens to make an informed decision on each and every election day." It appears that with broad hatred for the Fed gradually eclipsing party allegiances, that the presumptive public is finally waking up.

Use the ZOOM tool on your browser to get a better look at this chart. Zoom to at least 150%.


Monday, November 1, 2010

Indiana Braces For Violence, Adds Armed Guards To Unemployment Offices In Anticipation Of 99-Week Jobless Benefits Expiration

As America reaches its two year anniversary from the immediate economic collapse that followed the Lehman bankruptcy, punctuated mostly by vast and broad layoffs across every industry, arguably the most relevant topic that few are so far discussing is the expiration of full 99 weeks of maximum claims (EUC + Extended Benefits) for cohort after cohort of laid off Americans. And since these people are certainly not finding jobs in the broader labor market (which continues to contract and thus make the unemployment percentage far better optically than the 10%+ where U-3 should be), their next natural response will be to get very angry at the teat that has suckled them for so long, and is now forcing them to go cold turkey. Which is why we read with little surprise that now in Indiana, and soon everywhere else, unemployment offices are starting to add armed security guards. Of course, the official explanation if a benign one: "Armed security guards will be on hand at 36 unemployment offices around Indiana in what state officials said is a step to improve safety and make branch security more consistent." Why the need to improve safety all of a sudden? The 99 weeks cliff of course.

More from Indiana news on what is a harbinger of things to come.
No specific incidents prompted the action, Department of Workforce Development spokesman Marc Lotter told 6News' Norman Cox.

Lotter said the agency is merely being cautious with the approach of an early-December deadline when thousands of Indiana residents could see their unemployment benefits end after exhausting the maximum 99 weeks provided through multiple federal extension periods.

"Given the upcoming expiration of the federal extensions and the increased stress on some of the unemployed, we thought added security would provide an extra level of protection for our employees and clients
," he said.

Some offices have had guards for nearly two years but those guards were hired on a regional basis, meaning some offices had armed guards while others did not, Lotter said.

The cost of the armed guards varies dramatically around the state. Lotter said the agency is trying to be more consistent and that it plans to employ armed guards in all 36 offices where unemployment insurance benefits are handled.

The overall cost for the security is $1 million, paid for with federal funds designated for administration of the unemployment system, Lotter said.

Other agency offices that provide job training or are not full-service branches will continue to have unarmed guards.

Lotter said state employees in the affected offices have also recently gone through stress-management training in which they learn how to respond appropriately to angry clients.

"This is a stressful time for people in the economy," he said. "That's why we're not only taking this step (of hiring guards), but we're also increasing our training for our staff to be able to help people as they're trying to cope with these changes."
Next up: armed guards at your local social security office, grocery store, and soon, everywhere else.

$1.73 Trillion in 20 months...Now another $62 Billion in the last 2 months = 2% GDP growth and 9.6% Unemployment. Wow!

Below is an article from Bloomberg-
Put in perspective- This is $86.5 Billion per month from Jan 1 2009 to August 1 2010.
Then another $31 Billion for August and September.
And it clearly states( highlighted) the money was used to support securities.



The Fed bought about $1.73 trillion in government debt and mortgage securities in a 2009 program to keep interest rates near record lows, support securities prices and bolster the housing market. Since Aug. 17, it purchased another $62 billion of Treasuries, and has been weighing more monetary injections as its Beige Book business survey released Oct. 20 reported that the economy grew at a “modest pace” in September.
Elections tomorrow may divide power in Congress, helping the market, Fisher said. There’s a 92 percent chance Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives, helping them block President Barack Obama’s policies, according to bets on Intrade, a Dublin-based online prediction market.
“The stock market is just showing that maybe it’s not as bad as what a lot of people think,” said Liz Ann Sonders, the New York-based chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab Corp., which has $1.5 trillion in client assets.
To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net .
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net .
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