North Korea: senior military figures pledge allegiance to Kim Jong-un | World news | guardian.co.uk:
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Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Monday, December 26, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Roubini: Euro Zone 'In Denial,' US Postpones Reforms - EU Business News - CNBC
Roubini: Euro Zone 'In Denial,' US Postpones Reforms - EU Business News - CNBC: ""By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the U.S., a disorderly scenario in the euro zone and a hard landing in China could materialize," he wrote."
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Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Monday, December 12, 2011
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Kyle Bass - On the new world order.Gives the US 3-5 years.
Unlike the broad consensus of prognosticators who feel the road for the US is a decade or more, Bass sees a three-to-five year window for a credible solution to the debt saturation or else kicking the can will cease to have any impact. The reason for the proximity is the acceleration of what happens in Europe and Japan with that respective chronology his central view - which he sees a s critical in understanding for every money manager.
In this extended interview at AmeriCatalyst, he points to the optimistic self-deception biases that leave people unable to comprehend the scenarios as they either lead to a really bad outcome or a nominally bad outcome. Using the Lehman moment as an example, Bass explains how we have been conditioned to believe there is always a backstop or savior...now those backstops at a corporate and sovereign level (central banks and the IMF for example) are being called into question in their roles (being seen for what they are - as just promises) and it is the chasm between what we want to believe and what does happen that is enormous and leaves the extreme volatility, risk-on/risk-off market the way it is.
Reiterating how critical the psychology of today's situation, Bass goes on to debunk the optimism of globalization (at least for the Western world), destroy the myth of a 50% greek writedown solution, Japanese xenophobia and savings losses, structural versus cyclical implications for US equity deterioration, US deficits and housing's bottom, global debt saturation and how thistearing at the social fabric of the world will lead to - war.
Click image for video (no embed available)
This extended interview includes some of the following views (among many others):
On Greece:
For those who think a 50% write-down on debt will fix Greece, you have lost your mind. It is only a full wipe-out of the non-TROIKA-owned debt that is the only mathematical way for Greece to have any chance.
On the IMF and its role as global savior
He discusses in some detail Keynes and the IMF formation and the new world order he foresees as our era of the largest peacetime accumulation of global debt has no precedent (as it has historically ended in conflict or been created by conflict).
And how this debt saturation will inebitably play out:
Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world...what does this all mean? It means war.
And summarizing for every long-only talking head pitch-man:
This is not a cyclical rebound from a crisis we had two years and you should NOT be buying stocks because a P/E ratio is low relative to historical S&P behavior because the E is wrong. We are going to see declines and people don't know how to position themselves for declines. We are at peak earnings now! Earnings only look good because if you take all the bad assets and put them on the public balance sheet.
We need to delever globally. We haven't delevered. Just now we are seeing marginal delevering in Europe and all hell is breaking loose. An summing up:
Consensus is US low/slow GDP growth - no recession, US better than Europe, Europe mild recession, muddle through, go all in to Emerging markets as that's where the convexity is.
The consensus is never going to be right.
I don't get paid to be an optimist or a pessimist. I get paid to be a realist and the realist negative currently.
Don't believe these governments when they tell you everything is going to fine. The day before Mexico devalued by 60% they denied that they would ever devalue. They can and will never tell you the truth. Find your own numbers.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Washington Post article on imminently expiring Jobless benefits and potential impact
The looming expiration of federal unemployment insurance is reigniting a debate that could result in substantial changes to a program that serves as a lifeline to millions of jobless Americans.
The failure of the congressional supercommittee to reach a debt-reduction agreement that would have included an extension of benefits has left people who have been out of work for more than six months in danger of losing their payments. If lawmakers allow the unemployment program to expire on Dec. 31, an estimated 1.8 million people would lose benefits by the end of January.
The magnitude of the problem will come in stark relief Friday when the Labor Department is expected to report that the unemployment situation changed little in November. With long-term unemployment continuing to weigh down the economy, experts say that insurance benefits can be a significant boost because recipients quickly spend the money on day-to-day needs.
Members of Congress are working on a measure to extend the program, and advocates are hopeful that a deal will be reached.
But, they added, given the sharply differing views among members of Congress, nothing is guaranteed.
“The mystery to me is why this isn’t a no-brainer,” said Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist at the liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute. “It is sort of stunning that this has to be deliberated at this level at a time when we have this high level of unemployment that is projected to last so much longer.”
But with the national unemployment rate hovering near or above 9 percent for the past two and a half years, the extended level of high joblessness is taking an unprecedented toll on both state and federal budgets, lending urgency to calls by some policymakers to trim them.
Congressional leaders are discussing whether to substantially shorten the amount of time people receive unemployment benefits. Currently, jobless workers in 33 states and the District can receive as many as 99 weeks of unemployment benefits, a ceiling that some in Congress would like to see lowered to 79 weeks, according to senior legislative aides.
The federal government pays unemployment benefits for people whose state benefits are exhausted, which is typically after six months. Currently, 42 percent of the nation’s unemployed — nearly 6 million people — fall in that category, though not all of them collect the benefits.
The long-term unemployed have accounted for 40 percent or more of the total jobless for nearly two years. That is the nation’s longest stretch of long-term joblessness since the Labor Department began gathering the statistic in 1948, according to the National Employment Law Project.
The Labor Department says there are four unemployed people for every job opening in the country, signaling that unemployment will remain high for many months to come.
When layoffs began to spike in 2008, Congress extended unemployment benefits by as many as 53 weeks. The following year, lawmakers added an additional 20 weeks, making the overall benefit limit 99 weeks.
But the depth and duration of the ongoing economic downturn coupled with the fiscal squeeze affecting all levels of government has left some policymakers in search of ways to reduce the cost of the safety net for the unemployed.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps alone is up more than 70 percent over the past five years, to a record 45.3 million. Similarly, demand for federally subsidized school lunches and Medicaid have soared with the economic downturn.
In the face of those demands, nine states, including Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin, have moved to reduce the burden of unemployment insurance either by reducing the amount paid to the jobless, the amount of time they can collect benefits, or both.
The White House estimates that a one-year extension of federal unemployment benefits would cost nearly $50 billion. The average recipient of federal benefits receives $296 a week, according to NELP.
“A full year’s extension is what’s needed, both to help the historic number of workers who are long-term unemployed and also to boost the economy,” said Maurice Ensellem, policy co-director of the National Employment Law Project.
Yet, the price tag has some lawmakers worried, particularly in a time of record budget deficits.
“If you want to extend unemployment benefits, they have to be paid for,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told CNN last month. “We have an unemployment program. We have a tax for it. And it’s paid for 26 weeks. So the question is, do we want to borrow money from China to pay people not to work? I think we need to figure out how to get people back to work.”
Beyond looking at shortening the maximum benefit period, members of Congress also are weighing whether to implement some version of the insurance reforms offered by President Obama in September, which he said would be “the most sweeping reforms to the unemployment insurance system in 40 years.”
Obama’s plan includes a provision that would allow the long-term unemployed to continue collecting benefits while they receive on-the-job training from potential employers.
The idea is based on a Georgia program launched in 2003 that aims to teach the jobless new skills by having them work with potential employers for eight weeks.
The proposal has drawn favorable reaction from bipartisan members of Congress, some of whom are sympathetic to arguments that long-lasting unemployment benefits make recipients less eager to find new jobs, while eroding their skills.
But Georgia program, which is voluntary, has had only mixed success. Fewer than three out of four of the program’s 32,000 participants completed the training, and of those that did, only 18 percent found jobs, according to a November analysis by the Georgia Department of Labor.
The failure of the congressional supercommittee to reach a debt-reduction agreement that would have included an extension of benefits has left people who have been out of work for more than six months in danger of losing their payments. If lawmakers allow the unemployment program to expire on Dec. 31, an estimated 1.8 million people would lose benefits by the end of January.
The magnitude of the problem will come in stark relief Friday when the Labor Department is expected to report that the unemployment situation changed little in November. With long-term unemployment continuing to weigh down the economy, experts say that insurance benefits can be a significant boost because recipients quickly spend the money on day-to-day needs.
Members of Congress are working on a measure to extend the program, and advocates are hopeful that a deal will be reached.
But, they added, given the sharply differing views among members of Congress, nothing is guaranteed.
“The mystery to me is why this isn’t a no-brainer,” said Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist at the liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute. “It is sort of stunning that this has to be deliberated at this level at a time when we have this high level of unemployment that is projected to last so much longer.”
But with the national unemployment rate hovering near or above 9 percent for the past two and a half years, the extended level of high joblessness is taking an unprecedented toll on both state and federal budgets, lending urgency to calls by some policymakers to trim them.
Congressional leaders are discussing whether to substantially shorten the amount of time people receive unemployment benefits. Currently, jobless workers in 33 states and the District can receive as many as 99 weeks of unemployment benefits, a ceiling that some in Congress would like to see lowered to 79 weeks, according to senior legislative aides.
The federal government pays unemployment benefits for people whose state benefits are exhausted, which is typically after six months. Currently, 42 percent of the nation’s unemployed — nearly 6 million people — fall in that category, though not all of them collect the benefits.
The long-term unemployed have accounted for 40 percent or more of the total jobless for nearly two years. That is the nation’s longest stretch of long-term joblessness since the Labor Department began gathering the statistic in 1948, according to the National Employment Law Project.
The Labor Department says there are four unemployed people for every job opening in the country, signaling that unemployment will remain high for many months to come.
When layoffs began to spike in 2008, Congress extended unemployment benefits by as many as 53 weeks. The following year, lawmakers added an additional 20 weeks, making the overall benefit limit 99 weeks.
But the depth and duration of the ongoing economic downturn coupled with the fiscal squeeze affecting all levels of government has left some policymakers in search of ways to reduce the cost of the safety net for the unemployed.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps alone is up more than 70 percent over the past five years, to a record 45.3 million. Similarly, demand for federally subsidized school lunches and Medicaid have soared with the economic downturn.
In the face of those demands, nine states, including Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin, have moved to reduce the burden of unemployment insurance either by reducing the amount paid to the jobless, the amount of time they can collect benefits, or both.
The White House estimates that a one-year extension of federal unemployment benefits would cost nearly $50 billion. The average recipient of federal benefits receives $296 a week, according to NELP.
“A full year’s extension is what’s needed, both to help the historic number of workers who are long-term unemployed and also to boost the economy,” said Maurice Ensellem, policy co-director of the National Employment Law Project.
Yet, the price tag has some lawmakers worried, particularly in a time of record budget deficits.
“If you want to extend unemployment benefits, they have to be paid for,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told CNN last month. “We have an unemployment program. We have a tax for it. And it’s paid for 26 weeks. So the question is, do we want to borrow money from China to pay people not to work? I think we need to figure out how to get people back to work.”
Beyond looking at shortening the maximum benefit period, members of Congress also are weighing whether to implement some version of the insurance reforms offered by President Obama in September, which he said would be “the most sweeping reforms to the unemployment insurance system in 40 years.”
Obama’s plan includes a provision that would allow the long-term unemployed to continue collecting benefits while they receive on-the-job training from potential employers.
The idea is based on a Georgia program launched in 2003 that aims to teach the jobless new skills by having them work with potential employers for eight weeks.
The proposal has drawn favorable reaction from bipartisan members of Congress, some of whom are sympathetic to arguments that long-lasting unemployment benefits make recipients less eager to find new jobs, while eroding their skills.
But Georgia program, which is voluntary, has had only mixed success. Fewer than three out of four of the program’s 32,000 participants completed the training, and of those that did, only 18 percent found jobs, according to a November analysis by the Georgia Department of Labor.
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