Man who called dollar rally sees catastrophe ahead

Man who called dollar rally sees catastrophe ahead: ""I think Germany is at risk of leading Europe into a recession, which is against everybody else's opinion.""



'via Blog this'

7 'Saves' In 7 Months: A Market Going Nowhere Fast | Zero Hedge

7 'Saves' In 7 Months: A Market Going Nowhere Fast | Zero Hedge: "What do we make of a stock market that's been "saved" seven times in a mere seven months? Saved from what, you ask? Saved from rolling over, of course; after six years of upside, the current uptrend is getting long in tooth, and evidence of global recession is mounting.

What's "saved" the market seven times in seven months? The usual burps of hot air: the Federal Reserve issued more mewlings (zero rates forever), Greece was "saved" again, China's crumbling stock bubble was "saved" again, and so on."



'via Blog this'

Monetary policy divergence manifests itself first in currencies - Does This Look Like An Accidental Relationship To You?

Does This Look Like An Accidental Relationship To You? | Zero Hedge:



"Here are two Bloomberg charts that show what I mean. On the top is a 5-year chart of DXY – the trade-weighted dollar index. On the bottom is a 5-year chart of WTI crude oil spot prices. Does this look like an accidental relationship to you? Can we just stop with all the hand-wringing about how there’s suddenly too much oil in the world, or how the Saudis are trying to crush US shale production, or any of the other spurious supply-and-demand “explanations” for why oil prices have collapsed? Seriously. "



'via Blog this'

Least Transparent Ever: IRS Used "Wholly Separate" Message System To Hide Communications | Zero Hedge

Least Transparent Ever: IRS Used "Wholly Separate" Message System To Hide Communications | Zero Hedge:

"However, in an email uncovered by the Committee Lerner warns her colleagues about evading Congressional oversight:

“I was cautioning folks about email and how we have had several occasions where Congress has asked for emails and there has been an electronic search for responsive emails – so we need to be cautious about what we say in emails.”
 
Lerner then asks whether OCS is automatically archived. When informed it was not, Lerner responded “Perfect.”
 
While it is possible to set the instant messaging system to automatically archive messages, the IRS chose not to do so, according to one employee interviewed by the Committee."



'via Blog this'



keywords - IRS, deception, predatory

Why Do So Many Working Age Americans Choose Not To Enter The Workforce? | Zero Hedge

Why Do So Many Working Age Americans Choose Not To Enter The Workforce? | Zero Hedge:



 "Here are the numbers, as of the most recent Employment Situation report:

250 million: the total number of people of working age in the United States. 

149 million: the total number of people in that population that have a job.

8 million: the number of people who want a job but do not have one.

93 million: the number of people who don’t work, and don’t want work."



'via Blog this'

Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High 44.2%, Concerns Rising "Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable" | Zero Hedge

Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High 44.2%, Concerns Rising "Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable" | Zero Hedge: " and posing a question just what is going on in the country with the biggest debt load in Europe, and more importantly how is it that Rome is still unable to benefit from the ECB's QE which has pushed Italian yields far below those of the US despite an economy which is suddenly taking on water.

And nowhere was this more visible than in Italy's youth unemployment rate, which surprisingly jumped by nearly 2% to 44.2%, a record level, and one which is starting to rival some of Europe's most troubled nations, such as Spain and of course Greece."



'via Blog this'

Deutsche Bank "Loses" LIBOR Chat Records; Will Try Hard To Find Them | Zero Hedge

Deutsche Bank "Loses" LIBOR Chat Records; Will Try Hard To Find Them | Zero Hedge: "Amusingly, the chats "date back to 2005", which is precisely when Anshu Jain instituted the new seating arrangement that greased the wheels of the rate rigging machine at Deutsche. "



'via Blog this'

The Destruction Of The US Middle Class In One Chart: Quarterly Increase In Wages Is Smallest On Record | Zero Hedge

The Destruction Of The US Middle Class In One Chart: Quarterly Increase In Wages Is Smallest On Record | Zero Hedge: "As Valentin Marinov of Credit Agricole previewed:

Today's US data could be quite important as well with market focus likely to be on the Employment Cost Index (ECI) - easily the most comprehensive measure of wages in the economy.
 
Evidence of further ECI growth would be consistent with mounting wage pressures against the background of subdued trend economic growth and dissipating slack in the labour market. In turn, it would strengthen the case for lift-off sooner rather than later. USD could extend its gains broadly with markets also positioning ahead of the all-important NFP release next week."



'via Blog this'

US Q2 employment costs index up 0.2% vs up 0.6% expected - Lowest in 33 years

US Q2 employment costs index up 0.2% vs up 0.6% expected: "U.S. labor costs in the second quarter recorded their smallest increase in 33 years amid tepid gains in the private sector, but it likely was a temporary setback against the backdrop of diminishing labor market slack."



'via Blog this'

Gold's tumble is far from over: Traders

Gold's tumble is far from over: Traders: "
Gold simply cannot catch a break. After spending the year bouncing around five-year lows, the commodity hit a new bottom for that time frame Thursday, trading at about $1,087. And according to some traders, the worst is yet to come."



'via Blog this'



keyword - marker, call, prediction

Phantom Rental Income Boosts U.S. GDP By Over $1 Trillion Every Year

Phantom Rental Income Boosts U.S. GDP By Over $1 Trillion Every Year: "An even closer inspection revealed something even more outrageous: the inclusion of phantom rental income. Officially called "imputed rent," it assumes that every owner-occupier is essentially "renting" the home to himself. This economic activity is included in the GDP calculation, and it artificially inflates GDP by over $1 trillion every year."



'via Blog this'

Fed Reporter Pedro Da Costa Is Leaving The Wall Street Journal After Asking Yellen "Uncomfortable" Questions | Zero Hedge

Fed Reporter Pedro Da Costa Is Leaving The Wall Street Journal After Asking Yellen "Uncomfortable" Questions | Zero Hedge: "As we reported on June 17, Pedro Da Costa, one of the more determined and controversial Fed reporters, was shocked to learn he was no longer welcome to ask Janet Yellen uncomfortable questions, questions related to the biggest scandal currently gripping the Fed: its leaks of proprietary information to "expert network" Medley Global (recently sold by Pearson to Japan's Nikkei) and one which has since morphed into a criminal investigation."



'via Blog this'

Lagarde Says No To IMF Aid For Greece | Zero Hedge

Lagarde Says No To IMF Aid For Greece | Zero Hedge: "
According to the summary, IMF staff concluded Greece no longer clears two of the four requirements in the IMF’s "exceptional access criteria" – the Fund framework that allows it to grant bailouts of larger-than-normal size.
 
Under the criteria, a bailout recipient must be able to prove it has the “institutional and political capacity” to implement economic reforms, and that “there is a high probability that the member’s public debt is sustainable in the medium term”."



'via Blog this'

70% Of Americans See Economy Worsening, Consumer Comfort Collapses By Most In 10 Month | Zero Hedge

70% Of Americans See Economy Worsening, Consumer Comfort Collapses By Most In 10 Month | Zero Hedge: "Rather amusingly an intriguing 1% of Americans see the state of the economy as 'excellent' - wonder which 1% that is..."



'via Blog this'

George Washington makes SAT, ACT optional: Do standardized tests still matter? - CSMonitor.com

George Washington makes SAT, ACT optional: Do standardized tests still matter? - CSMonitor.com: "George Washington makes SAT, ACT optional: Do standardized tests still matter?"



'via Blog this'

US Economy Grew Less Than Expected In Q2: Worst Economic Recovery Since WWII Revised Even Weaker | Zero Hedge

US Economy Grew Less Than Expected In Q2: Worst Economic Recovery Since WWII Revised Even Weaker | Zero Hedge: "And the culprit: the capex recovery is officially dead - fixed investment as a % of GDP dropped to the lowest since Q2 2012."



'via Blog this'

More homeowners drowning in debt

More homeowners drowning in debt: "The real estate information company defines that as the loan amount being at least 25 percent higher than the property's estimated market value.

Over 13 percent of all properties with a mortgage are in this predicament, and that is actually a slight increase from the first quarter of this year."



'via Blog this'

US government revises earlier GDPs to fix anomalies in reporting

US government revises earlier GDPs to fix anomalies in reporting: "US government revises earlier GDPs to fix anomalies in reporting"

Overall, the government revised down GDP over the three years ending in 2014 by a modest 0.3 percent but also took the first steps in changing the way it calculates GDP to account for anomalies in the quarterly pattern of growth.

'via Blog this'

These Superhumans Are Real and Their DNA Could Be Worth Billions - Bloomberg Business

These Superhumans Are Real and Their DNA Could Be Worth Billions - Bloomberg Business: "Steven Pete can put his hand on a hot stove or step on a piece of glass and not feel a thing, all because of a quirk in his genes. Only a few dozen people in the world share Pete’s congenital insensitivity to pain. Drug companies see riches in his rare mutation. They also have their eye on people like Timothy Dreyer, 25, who has bones so dense he could walk away from accidents that would leave others with broken limbs. About 100 people have sclerosteosis, Dreyer’s condition."



'via Blog this'

How Americans Die Abroad - Bloomberg Business

How Americans Die Abroad - Bloomberg Business: "In much of the world, the causes of unnatural death for Americans abroad are similar to those at home—suicides and accidents, particularly car crashes."



'via Blog this'

Investors Dismiss Fed With Bids for U.S. Notes at Six-Year High - Bloomberg Business

Investors Dismiss Fed With Bids for U.S. Notes at Six-Year High - Bloomberg Business: "Any trepidation about the Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates this year was not enough to damp demand at the Treasury's $26 billion auction of two-year notes.
Foreign central banks and mutual funds came away with 54.4 percent of the debt, the biggest share since 2009. The U.S. central bank will complete a two-day meeting Wednesday and issue a statement about its rate plans."



'via Blog this'

This Chart Tells You Why It's So Hard to Bet Against the Euro - Bloomberg Business

This Chart Tells You Why It's So Hard to Bet Against the Euro - Bloomberg Business: ""The euro has these boundaries with quite some selling interest on the upside and buying interest on the downside," said Thu Lan Nguyen, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. "The peak on the downside is around $1.08," she said, meaning net-buy interests is the highest around the level, as shown in the deep-orange area of the chart."



'via Blog this'

'Investors' Panic-Buy Stocks After Confidence Collapse Sparks Biggest Short-Squeeze In 6 Months | Zero Hedge

'Investors' Panic-Buy Stocks After Confidence Collapse Sparks Biggest Short-Squeeze In 6 Months | Zero Hedge: "US Stocks traded weaker into the open... but once Consumer Confidence collapsed, Energy stocks went into full short squeeze mode and exploded everything higher..."



'via Blog this'

Supply And Demand In The Gold And Silver Futures Markets | Zero Hedge

Supply And Demand In The Gold And Silver Futures Markets | Zero Hedge: "To summarize: a decline in the price of gold can be caused by a decline in the demand for gold or by an increase in the supply of gold.

A decline in demand or an increase in supply is not what we are observing in the gold and silver physical markets. The price of bullion in the futures market has been falling as demand for physical bullion increases and supply experiences constraints. 

What we are seeing in the physical market indicates a rising price. Yet in the futures market in which almost all contracts are settled in cash and not with bullion deliveries, the price is falling."



This is the second time in 9 months that the U.S. Mint could not keep up with market demand and had to suspend sales.



'via Blog this'

New Home Sales - July 24 - 2015. Breaking down - Bad even after manipulation

Live Forex News | Real Time Forex Trading New | FX Trader Magazine: "After all of the whoo hoo'ing over the strong existing home sales report on Wednesday, U.S. new home sales poured cold water on the festive tones. New home sales unexpectedly fell in June and not only that, the decline was pretty big at 6.8% and the level of 482,000 units annualized is the lowest since November. In fact, this is the 2nd decline in a row, which has not been seen in one year. And if that wasn't enough, the cut went a little deeper as March, April and May's sales were revised downward. All regions saw fewer new homes sold, except in the Northeast. Inventories rose for the 4th straight month, but with fewer sales, the months' supply rose to 5.4, still within the normal range but the highest since November. Median prices fell from year-ago levels for the 2nd month in a row, unlike its counterpart in the resale market.
The headline decline comes as a surprise given how upbeat homebuilders are NAHB housing index at the highest level in a nearly a decade, various builders reporting growth in new orders, and strong demand in the existing market combined with still-tight supplies. But, new home sales are a small part of total sales, there were 5½ mln of existing homes sold in June, versus under ½ million of new. This doesn't change the picture that housing is supporting overall economic growth. And despite all of the ups and downs in new homes sold, the trend is still heading in the right direction, says BMO Economics."



'via Blog this'

Is The Echo Housing Bubble About To Burst? | Zero Hedge

Is The Echo Housing Bubble About To Burst? | Zero Hedge: "The echo bubble has now inflated for roughly the same time period, and has almost fully retraced the 45% decline from the 2007 peak. Though recent buyers may hope this bubble will be different from all previous bubbles (i.e. it will never pop), history suggests the echo bubble will be fully retraced in a sharp decline lasting about two to three years, in rough symmetry with the collapse of the first housing bubble 2008-2010."



'via Blog this'

What's The Real Reason The Fed Is Raising Rates? (Hint: It's Not Employment) | Zero Hedge

What's The Real Reason The Fed Is Raising Rates? (Hint: It's Not Employment) | Zero Hedge: "In looking at Employment, Industrial Production, Consumer Prices, Capacity Utilization, Retail Sales, and the West Texas Intermediate price of oil, there's no evidence that the Fed should raise rates.

What is the Fed worried about?

Probably, and almost exclusively, it's financial asset price appreciation."



'via Blog this'

15 Years After Land-Grabs, Mugabe Invites White Farmers Back To Zimbabwe | Zero Hedge

15 Years After Land-Grabs, Mugabe Invites White Farmers Back To Zimbabwe | Zero Hedge: "
Zimbabwe’s government has for the first time suggested it may give official permission for some white farmers to stay on their land, 15 years after it sanctioned widespread land grabs that plummeted the country into an economic crisis."



'via Blog this'

Hoisington On Bond Market Misperceptions: "Secular Low In Treasury Yields Still To Come" | Zero Hedge

Hoisington On Bond Market Misperceptions: "Secular Low In Treasury Yields Still To Come" | Zero Hedge: "In summary, economic theory and history do not suggest the secular low in inflation, or that its alter ego, Treasury bond yields, is at hand. The excessive debt burden, slow money growth, declining money velocity, the Wicksell effect and the high real rate of interest indicate that the fundamental elements are exerting downward, rather than upward, pressure on inflation. Inflation will not trough as long as the US economy continues to become even more indebted. While Treasury bond yields have repeatedly shown the ability to rise in response to a multitude of short-run concerns that fade in and out of the bond market on a regular basis, the secular low in Treasury bond yields is not likely to occur until inflation troughs and real yields are well below long-run mean values. We therefore continue to comfortably hold our long-held position in long-term Treasury securities."



'via Blog this'

Why Most Companies "Beat" Earnings Expectations - Explained In One Chart | Zero Hedge

Why Most Companies "Beat" Earnings Expectations - Explained In One Chart | Zero Hedge: "The reason the average EPS beat in the past 4 years has been about 3.3% is because the average EPS cut just prior to reporting has been... 4.0%"



'via Blog this'

AAPL/Braeburn Capital - The World's Biggest "Hedge Fund", $30 Billion Bigger Than Bridgewater, Remains Mysterious As Ever | Zero Hedge

The World's Biggest "Hedge Fund", $30 Billion Bigger Than Bridgewater, Remains Mysterious As Ever | Zero Hedge: "Another reason why some may want to know just what debt AAPL is buying: in a bond market as illiquid as the one right now, should AAPL be forced to dump any of its billions in TSYs, IG, Junk paper (say because rates are rising) just what will happen to the market price in what is generally quite a bidless market? 

Recall that the only reason why Bill Gross' departure and subsequent surge in redemptions from Pimco's Total Return Fund did not roil the market - as so many expected - is because as we learned laer, PIMCO sold from itself... to itself.

Which leads us to another question: just what is the fair value of AAPL's "cash" if and when the company is actually converting it to real cash, and/or the bond market locks up due to the creeping wave of illiquidity, as so many increasingly fear.

And why is all this taking place in Reno, NV instead of Park Avenue or Wall Street? Because as we reported three years ago, Apple "uses Braeburn primarily in its capacity to find legal tax loophole all around the world and avoid paying taxes" and Nevada is perhaps the best state in the US where one can do just that."



'via Blog this'

Wall Street Prepares To Reap Billions From Another Main Street Wipe Out | Zero Hedge

Wall Street Prepares To Reap Billions From Another Main Street Wipe Out | Zero Hedge: "
Wall Street is preparing for panic on Main Street.
 
Hedge funds are lining up to profit from potential trouble at some "alternative" mutual funds and bond exchange-traded funds that have boomed in popularity among retirees and other individual investors.
 
Financial advisers have pushed ordinary investors into those funds in search of higher returns, a strategy that has come into favor as Federal Reserve benchmark interest rates remain near zero. But many on Wall Street worry the junk bonds, bank loans and esoteric investments held by some of those funds will be extremely hard to sell if the market turns, leaving prices pummeled in a rush for the exits."



'via Blog this'

BlackRock’s Warning: Get Your Money Out Of All Mutual Funds | Investment Research Dynamics

BlackRock’s Warning: Get Your Money Out Of All Mutual Funds | Investment Research Dynamics: "BlackRock Inc. is seeking government clearance to set up an internal program in which mutual funds that get hit with client redemptions could temporarily borrow money from sister funds that are flush with cash."
Larry Fink, BlackRock’s chief executive officer, said in December that U.S. bond funds face increased volatility, adding that he expected a “dysfunctional market” lasting days or even weeks within the next two years.   – Bloomberg


'via Blog this'

China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless | Zero Hedge

China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless | Zero Hedge: "Finally, if China's selling is only getting started, just what does this mean for future Fed strategy. Because one can easily forget a rate hike if in addition to rising short-term rates, China is about to dump a few hundred billion in paper on a vastly illiquid market.

Or let us paraphrase: how soon until QE 4?"



'via Blog this'

The "Smartest Money" Used Last Week's Surge To Dump Even More Stock | Zero Hedge

The "Smartest Money" Used Last Week's Surge To Dump Even More Stock | Zero Hedge: "This is what BofA's Jill Hall said "BofAML clients were big net sellers of US stocks in the amount of $4.1bn, following four weeks of net buying. Net sales were the largest since January 2008 and led by institutional clients—after three weeks of net buying, institutional clients’ net sales last week were the largest in our data history.""



'via Blog this'

How The SEC Engineered Every Stock Market Bubble Since 1982

How The SEC Engineered Every Stock Market Bubble Since 1982: "In 1981, President Ronald Reagan appointed John Shad chairman of the SEC. He was the first Wall Street executive to lead the SEC since Joseph Kennedy. Previously, he was vice chairman at E. F. Hutton & Company."



'via Blog this'

Martin Armstrong: "Those In Power Will Risk War And Civil Unrest To Preserve It" | Zero Hedge

Martin Armstrong: "Those In Power Will Risk War And Civil Unrest To Preserve It" | Zero Hedge: "Nigel Farage may be the only practical politician these days because he came from the trading sector. He explains the Euro-Project and its failures. He makes it clear that the Greek people never voted to enter the euro, and explains that it was forced upon them by Goldman Sachs and their politicians."



'via Blog this'

The Euro crisis/The reason the EU was a bad idea - William Hague - Brilliant Article

Euro-Skeptic William Hague: "I Was Right In 1998, And I Am Right Today" | Zero Hedge:

William Hague - The 3 reasons why the Euro crisis will continue and why it is no fault of the Greek people.

• "The first is that this crisis is not the fault of the Greek people. It is easy to think the opposite when they have a government so utterly ham-fisted and unreliable in its dealings with its partners, and a demagogic and now departed finance minister who regards as "terrorism" the simple act of lending money and expecting it back one day.

They have rejected reasonable terms from their creditors, defending retirement benefits paid earlier than most in northern Europe, and protecting lower VAT rates for tourist areas of which Britain's Welsh hills and Yorkshire Dales, to name two close to my heart, can only dream. But Greeks have experienced the loss of one quarter of their entire national income, following an unsustainable inflation of spending and debt which eurozone membership facilitated. The responsibility for this crisis lies with their own former leaders and those around the EU who gave them euro membership when they were not remotely suited to it, a triumph of political desire over dispassionate economic analysis for which ordinary people are now paying the price.

It is no good now expecting Greeks to sit quietly in a burnt-out room of the burning building I described 17 years ago.

• This brings us to the second truth: that this is not a short-term crisis, but a permanent one, in which any temporary accommodation will soon be overtaken by events.

Greeks are being expected to do business and compete with the rest of the world at the same exchange rate and with the same interest rates as Germany, which would require their manufacturing, their education and their enterprise culture to be at least similar to those of Germany.

In their lifetimes they are not going to be able to do that. This is not because there is something wrong with them; it is because they live in a different economic environment from Germany, and one that is not suited to being in the same currency.

In such circumstances, it is better to be able to leave sooner, with some generous support, than leave later with even greater resentment and failure.

• The third and final truth will be the hardest one of all for those responsible for the euro to accept: that this is not just about one country. It is in Greece that the fundamental tensions created by a single currency have first broken through, because Greece is a particularly indebted and less competitive country. But the same tensions will ultimately surface in other nations facing a less immediate crisis but a similar prognosis.

Across southern Europe, governments such as those in Italy and Spain are making brave efforts to enact long overdue reforms. They might not achieve enough, however, for their people to prosper when required to compete equally with their northern neighbours.

There is a clear risk that the economic performance of the south will diverge from, not converge with, the north. Unless this is averted, it will bring problems to Europe for which Greece has only been a minor rehearsal.



In future decades, in the very business school where I spoke in 1998, I believe students will sit down to study the folly of extending a single currency too far. Sad though it will be to see it, their textbook is likely to say that the Greek debacle of 2015 was not the end of the euro crisis, but its real beginning."



'via Blog this'

And this why they convinced Greece to join the EU...so they could screw them ... this is how the game is played

• GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL SAYS WILL FACILITATE THE COMPLETION OF THE TENDERS FOR THE PRIVATIZATION OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS, TRAINOSE, THE PORTS OF PIRAEUS AND THESSALONIKI AND HELLINIKON
• GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL SAYS WILL TRANSFER REMAINING STATE SHARES IN GREEK TELECOMS COMPANY OTE TO THE PRIVATIZATION AGENCY

They will make Greece privatize all their public sectors - The companies being given the contracts are part of the Cabal that is behind Greece joining the EU.

Make them a part of something they cannot possibly afford to be a part of. Then when they fail - point a finger at the politicians in charge, create internal conflict and move in  and take over the choice cuts.

That's how it's done folks!

U.S. government hack could actually affect 18 million - CNNPolitics.com

U.S. government hack could actually affect 18 million - CNNPolitics.com: "The personal data of an estimated 18 million current, former and prospective federal employees were affected by a cyber breach at the Office of Personnel Management - more than four times the 4.2 million the agency has publicly acknowledged. "



'via Blog this'

I.R.S. Cracks Down on Hedge Fund Tax Strategy

So-called basket options—complex financial structures that allowed hedge funds like Renaissance Technologies to bypass taxes on short-term trades—will now be labeled listed transactions, the I.R.S. said. This means that anyone using the options must declare them on their tax returns. They will be penalized if they fail to do so. (Tweet This)
The new I.R.S. guidance will be retroactive, applying to all transactions as far back as Jan. 1, 2011.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102820869

Employment - What is and what isn't happening

Real Jobs that pay the bills

The Jobs that make the numbers work

Front Running Explained - Russell Rebalance Climax - The Busiest Trading Day Of The Year | Zero Hedge

Russell Rebalance Climax - The Busiest Trading Day Of The Year | Zero Hedge: "In truth, however, markets and traders have been handicapping likely Russell adds, deletes and moves for over a month.  How do we know?  The Convergex Program Trading desk put together an analysis of how the various stocks that are transiting into/out of/in between Russell 1000 and 2000 indices.  Here’s the math:

The 120+ names being added to the Russell 2000 are up an average of 11% since May 1st.  This didn’t happen all at once, nor did it even happen in June when the preliminary names were announced.  No – this group advanced 10% in May, and was up as much as 15% on June 15th.  And the final move – today – could take this select list higher still.
 
In contrast, the handful (19, by our calc) of companies entering the Russell 1000 are up a mere 29 basis points since May 1st.
 
Even though most market participants are more familiar with the Russell 2000 as a de facto standard for small cap indices than the Russell 1000 for large caps, companies moving from the 2000 to the 1000 today are up 6.2% since May 1st.  This may seem odd because common wisdom has it that far more capital is benchmarked to the 2000 than the 1000, resulting in a net sale position for equities making that transition.
 
Another seeming anomaly – the 50 companies moving from the 1000 to the 2000 are down 3.2% since May 1st.  Again, the common perception is that moving “Down” to the 2000 means actually picking “up” more potential capital.
 
And how about those companies that are getting the heave-ho entirely?  Yep – not good news there.  The average return for the 150+ companies leaving the Russell 2000 is -1.9% from May 1st to today.
There is, of course, one remaining question: how close have the traders who are essentially renting these positions until the “Real” owners show up today gotten to accurately pricing the supply/demand imbalances created by the adds/deletes/moves?  Will the Russell 2000 “Add” names trade higher today on the back of strong demand from index-oriented investors?  Will the equities moving from the Russell 1000 to the 2000 see the benefit of strong demand going into the closing bell from their new, more widely followed index?

It is for this reason that Russell rebalance day is often the busiest single trading day of the year.  Our head trader, Pete Coleman, told me that he expected this to be the case today. That’s how important the Russell rebalance can be.  And it tells me one thing.  Everyone is essentially a trader today, regardless of what your investment mandate is every other day of the year."



'via Blog this'

Europe-US Risk Diverges Most In 13 Years - How Best To Trade The Referendum | Zero Hedge

Europe-US Risk Diverges Most In 13 Years - How Best To Trade The Referendum | Zero Hedge: "European risk has never traded at such an extreme level relative to US risk... ever. But when looking for the best bang for your Greferendum-trading buck - are you better off buying higher vol in Europe or lower US vol? Or, as Goldman Sachs explains below, what are the highest payouts on bets for a rebound...

Europe is pricing significant event risk while the VIX @16 is only 1 pt above its 2015 avg - Europe's "VIX" trades at more than double that of US "VIX" - this has never happened before..."



'via Blog this'

June Payrolls Increase By 223K, Less Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Drops To 5.3% | Zero Hedge

June Payrolls Increase By 223K, Less Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Drops To 5.3% | Zero Hedge: "According to the BLS, in June the US added 223K payrolls, less than the expected 233K, even as the the US unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.4%. Worse, the previous number was revised from 280K to  254K. Worst of all, average hourly earnings were flat despite expectations of a 0.2%, and a big drop from last month's 0.3%.

So much for escape velocity in payrolls: not only did June disappoint but the last two months were revised lower by 60K."



'via Blog this'

July 2, 2015 - Fed still posturing on rate hike...My Position - WILL NOT HAPPEN !!

Live Forex News | Real Time Forex Trading New | FX Trader Magazine: "The Fed's conditions for lift-off include further progress on the labor market, steady or rising core inflation and confirmation that the Q1 slowdown in GDP was transitory. Importantly, a pickup in wage growth is not a pre-condition as stated explicitly by Chair Yellen. Recent comments from William Dudley and Stanley Fischer suggest that key Fed officials are already comfortable with the state of the labor market, and It is believed that today's data will do little to alter that perception. Inflation data has also been in line with the conditions outlined above.
 The only question mark was the activity data, but recent evidence has significantly eased the concern about the Q1 slowdown. Forecasts for Q2 GDP growth is set to clock in at 3.3%. Although this is stronger than most tracking estimates, expected  monthly figures for June to show further acceleration in activity. Importantly, the FOMC hurdle on GDP growth appears to be quite low.
"The Fed's 1.9% GDP forecast for 2015 implies a 2.5% average during Q2-Q4, and It is expected that this hurdle will be easily met in Q2 and exceeded by a wide margin in Q3" estimates Societe Generale
 In this context, it is expected  that the FOMC would find a compelling case for lifting rate. Continued disappointments on wage growth could subsequently slow the pace of tightening relative to the "dots", but as an important factor in the lift-off decision.
One important caveat to September rate hike is Greece. Our European colleagues see the probability of a semi-stable solution for Greece at 60%, with a 40% chance of a Grexit scenario. If the latter outcome becomes reality, the probability of a September hike would decline rapidly. Ultimately, the Fed's decision will be driven by the degree of tightening in global financial conditions and by the extent of the dollar's strength says Societe Generale"



'via Blog this'

And what the BLS said was - !!!! Strong...Oh yeah...

Live Forex News | Real Time Forex Trading New | FX Trader Magazine: "The U.S. jobs report was released today, giving investors mixed feelings. Certain numbers indicate a strong economy bouncing back from a tepid first quarter while other data foreshadows an economy trapped in the same low growth trajectory. Signs of a solid job market were aided by 223,000 new June jobs and a 0.2 percent decrease in unemployment that brought the jobless rate to 5.3 percent.
 The new jobs added in June mark the 13th time in the last 15 months the economy has added at least 200,000 per month. However the U.S. job market did take hits from reduced employment gains, disappointingly flat wages and a record low labor force participation number. Remember that a robust job market is one of the Fed's key indicators for raising rates and every jobs report from here on plays a significant role on when that hike will take place, notes  Voya Global Perspectives"



'via Blog this'

"Factory Orders Scream Recession: Annual Drop Biggest Since 2008"

Zero Hedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero: "Factory Orders Scream Recession: Annual Drop Biggest Since 2008"



'via Blog this'

Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 640,000 To Record 93.6 Million; Participation Rate Drops To 1977 Levels | Zero Hedge

Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 640,000 To Record 93.6 Million; Participation Rate Drops To 1977 Levels | Zero Hedge: "Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 640,000 To Record 93.6 Million; Participation Rate Drops To 1977 Levels"



'via Blog this'

"Earnings" - after 2 QEs and stock buybacks

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/616552576344039424