Europe-US Risk Diverges Most In 13 Years - How Best To Trade The Referendum | Zero Hedge: "European risk has never traded at such an extreme level relative to US risk... ever. But when looking for the best bang for your Greferendum-trading buck - are you better off buying higher vol in Europe or lower US vol? Or, as Goldman Sachs explains below, what are the highest payouts on bets for a rebound...
Europe is pricing significant event risk while the VIX @16 is only 1 pt above its 2015 avg - Europe's "VIX" trades at more than double that of US "VIX" - this has never happened before..."
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Friday, July 3, 2015
Thursday, July 2, 2015
June Payrolls Increase By 223K, Less Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Drops To 5.3% | Zero Hedge
June Payrolls Increase By 223K, Less Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Drops To 5.3% | Zero Hedge: "According to the BLS, in June the US added 223K payrolls, less than the expected 233K, even as the the US unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.4%. Worse, the previous number was revised from 280K to 254K. Worst of all, average hourly earnings were flat despite expectations of a 0.2%, and a big drop from last month's 0.3%.
So much for escape velocity in payrolls: not only did June disappoint but the last two months were revised lower by 60K."
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So much for escape velocity in payrolls: not only did June disappoint but the last two months were revised lower by 60K."
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July 2, 2015 - Fed still posturing on rate hike...My Position - WILL NOT HAPPEN !!
Live Forex News | Real Time Forex Trading New | FX Trader Magazine: "The Fed's conditions for lift-off include further progress on the labor market, steady or rising core inflation and confirmation that the Q1 slowdown in GDP was transitory. Importantly, a pickup in wage growth is not a pre-condition as stated explicitly by Chair Yellen. Recent comments from William Dudley and Stanley Fischer suggest that key Fed officials are already comfortable with the state of the labor market, and It is believed that today's data will do little to alter that perception. Inflation data has also been in line with the conditions outlined above.
The only question mark was the activity data, but recent evidence has significantly eased the concern about the Q1 slowdown. Forecasts for Q2 GDP growth is set to clock in at 3.3%. Although this is stronger than most tracking estimates, expected monthly figures for June to show further acceleration in activity. Importantly, the FOMC hurdle on GDP growth appears to be quite low.
"The Fed's 1.9% GDP forecast for 2015 implies a 2.5% average during Q2-Q4, and It is expected that this hurdle will be easily met in Q2 and exceeded by a wide margin in Q3" estimates Societe Generale
In this context, it is expected that the FOMC would find a compelling case for lifting rate. Continued disappointments on wage growth could subsequently slow the pace of tightening relative to the "dots", but as an important factor in the lift-off decision.
One important caveat to September rate hike is Greece. Our European colleagues see the probability of a semi-stable solution for Greece at 60%, with a 40% chance of a Grexit scenario. If the latter outcome becomes reality, the probability of a September hike would decline rapidly. Ultimately, the Fed's decision will be driven by the degree of tightening in global financial conditions and by the extent of the dollar's strength says Societe Generale"
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The only question mark was the activity data, but recent evidence has significantly eased the concern about the Q1 slowdown. Forecasts for Q2 GDP growth is set to clock in at 3.3%. Although this is stronger than most tracking estimates, expected monthly figures for June to show further acceleration in activity. Importantly, the FOMC hurdle on GDP growth appears to be quite low.
"The Fed's 1.9% GDP forecast for 2015 implies a 2.5% average during Q2-Q4, and It is expected that this hurdle will be easily met in Q2 and exceeded by a wide margin in Q3" estimates Societe Generale
In this context, it is expected that the FOMC would find a compelling case for lifting rate. Continued disappointments on wage growth could subsequently slow the pace of tightening relative to the "dots", but as an important factor in the lift-off decision.
One important caveat to September rate hike is Greece. Our European colleagues see the probability of a semi-stable solution for Greece at 60%, with a 40% chance of a Grexit scenario. If the latter outcome becomes reality, the probability of a September hike would decline rapidly. Ultimately, the Fed's decision will be driven by the degree of tightening in global financial conditions and by the extent of the dollar's strength says Societe Generale"
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And what the BLS said was - !!!! Strong...Oh yeah...
Live Forex News | Real Time Forex Trading New | FX Trader Magazine: "The U.S. jobs report was released today, giving investors mixed feelings. Certain numbers indicate a strong economy bouncing back from a tepid first quarter while other data foreshadows an economy trapped in the same low growth trajectory. Signs of a solid job market were aided by 223,000 new June jobs and a 0.2 percent decrease in unemployment that brought the jobless rate to 5.3 percent.
The new jobs added in June mark the 13th time in the last 15 months the economy has added at least 200,000 per month. However the U.S. job market did take hits from reduced employment gains, disappointingly flat wages and a record low labor force participation number. Remember that a robust job market is one of the Fed's key indicators for raising rates and every jobs report from here on plays a significant role on when that hike will take place, notes Voya Global Perspectives"
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The new jobs added in June mark the 13th time in the last 15 months the economy has added at least 200,000 per month. However the U.S. job market did take hits from reduced employment gains, disappointingly flat wages and a record low labor force participation number. Remember that a robust job market is one of the Fed's key indicators for raising rates and every jobs report from here on plays a significant role on when that hike will take place, notes Voya Global Perspectives"
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"Factory Orders Scream Recession: Annual Drop Biggest Since 2008"
Zero Hedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero: "Factory Orders Scream Recession: Annual Drop Biggest Since 2008"
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Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 640,000 To Record 93.6 Million; Participation Rate Drops To 1977 Levels | Zero Hedge
Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 640,000 To Record 93.6 Million; Participation Rate Drops To 1977 Levels | Zero Hedge: "Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 640,000 To Record 93.6 Million; Participation Rate Drops To 1977 Levels"
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