Tuesday, December 7, 2010

This morning the S&P is at 1232 on the news below

The latest from Reuters, on the late news that Obama will both extend Unemployment Insurance for 13 months, and extend the Bush tax cuts for 2 years:
  • Obama: has reached a framework for compromise with Republicans to extend all Bush tax cuts for two years
  • Obama: compromise also calls for extending jobless benefits for 13 months, and calls for 2% payroll tax cuts next year, and for extension of estate tax
  • Obama: says compromise is an essential step on the road to economic recovery
  • Obama: he is confident that Congress will ultimately ‘do the right thing’
In the meantime, we present that one metric which is now completely and totally irrelevant: the US debt, which is at $14,833,512,000,000. It is also just $513 billion away from the debt ceiling. We expect with the new spending spree, Fed monetization or not, that the debt ceiling will be breached in February. And, just as both Republicans and Democrats forgot that the angry US public does not want any more irresponsible spending, and will get rid of all incumbents, so the debate over the debt ceiling will pass in under a day's debate. Next debt ceiling: infinite.














































In the meantime, the futures indicate that this news has been largely priced in, and in fact the AUDJPY may soon drag the ES lower.

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