Wednesday, January 18, 2012

The market charade cycle...we are approaching "Summit"

Einhorn at his best:

The cycle looks like this: time passes and the crisis deepens. Markets, eternal creatures of habit, begin to reflect the ensuing fear. Then, just as things appear ready to unravel, there is a reprieve, as red headlines race across the screen: "Sarkozy and Merkel to Meet at Deauville", "Obama Phones Cameron", or "Christine Lagarde Waves from Bus". The market jumps. You'd think the media would quit falling for this charade, but having run out of clever headlines to describe the impending doom - "Eurogeddon" Really? - they herald every briefing, meeting, assembly, and conference call.

The market embraces these announcements as eagerly as the media, behaving as if any and all communication is equally constructive, and likely to yield a solution. The market continues to rise until the day of that summit, as all ears await a Grand Communique. Within minutes of any proclamation, the market may cheer with a final, celebratory spike. Upon evaluation of the actual statement, it becomes clear that either nothing has truly been agreed upon, or the plan is insufficient, impractical or just won't work. The market sells off and the crisis deepens some more. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

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