Guest Post: Is Housing An Attractive Investment? | ZeroHedge: "The thesis for higher demand for housing and rentals is based on these assumptions:
The economy is on a sustainable uptrend of growth
Employment is also on a sustainable uptrend
Inflation will remain low
Household income will soon resume an uptrend
The Federal government will continue issuing unprecedented amounts of cash transfers to households
The Federal government will continue to fund housing subsidies and mortgage guarantees
The Federal Reserve’s plan to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future will also apply to mortgage rates
The MERS/robosigning Foreclosuregate issues will all be settled without disrupting the housing market
The bulge in inventory will be liquidated as new supply (i.e., newly built homes) stays well below demand (sales)
New household formation will drive demand for rentals and homes"
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Tuesday, February 28, 2012
2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously | ZeroHedge
2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously | ZeroHedge: "Now I am quite used to being ballyhooed. It was on December 27, 2007 when I identified the risks of subprime mortgages and CDO’s, my early call on Greece was when their ten year yield 4.38% and while perhaps not of giant intellect I am a reasonably good sleuth. I tout nothing but I warn plenty in an effort to keep all of you out of some gaping hole that is squarely in front of the path that we are taking. It is not gloom and doom that I pull around like Pig Pen’s black cloud but a giant warning sign that I plant firmly in the ground which says, “Don’t step here.” Today I point at Europe and intone once again, “Don‘t step here.”"
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Monday, February 27, 2012
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Friday, February 24, 2012
Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge
Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge: "The problem with central bank intervention is that it never works out as planned. The unintended consequences end up cancelling out the short-term benefits. Back in 2008, when the Fed introduced zero percent interest rates, everyone thought it was a great policy. Four years later, however, and we're finally beginning to appreciate the complete destruction it has wreaked on savers. Just look at the horror show that is the pension industry today: According to Credit Suisse, of the 341 companies in the S&P 500 index with defined benefit pension plans, 97 percent are underfunded today.12 According to a recent pension study by Seattle-based Milliman Inc., the combined deficit of the 100 largest defined-benefit plans in the US increased by $236.4 billion in 2011 alone.13 The main culprit for the increase? Depressed interest rates on government bonds.14
Let's also not forget the public sector pension shortfalls, which are outright frightening. In Europe, unfunded state pension obligations are estimated to total $39 trillion dollars, which is approximately five times higher than Europe's combined gross debt. 15 In the United States, unfunded pension obligations increased by $2.9 trillion in 2011."
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Let's also not forget the public sector pension shortfalls, which are outright frightening. In Europe, unfunded state pension obligations are estimated to total $39 trillion dollars, which is approximately five times higher than Europe's combined gross debt. 15 In the United States, unfunded pension obligations increased by $2.9 trillion in 2011."
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Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge
Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge: "This is likely why China reduced its US Treasury exposure by $32 billion in the month of December (See Figure 1).7 This is also why China, which produced 360 tonnes of gold internally last year, also imported an additional 428 tonnes in 2011, up from 119 tonnes in 2010.8 This may also be why China's copper imports hit a record high of 508,942 tonnes in December 2011, up 47.7 percent from the previous year, despite the fact that their GDP declined at year-end.9 Same goes for their crude oil imports, which hit a record high of 23.41 million metric tons this past January, up 7.4 percent year-over-year.10 The so-called experts have a habit of downplaying these numbers, but it seems pretty clear to us: China isn't waiting around for next QE program. They are accelerating their move away from paper currencies and into hard assets."
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Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge
Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge: "Don't worry, it gets better. Since unlimited US swap lines weren't enough to solve the problem, roughly three weeks later, on December 21, 2011, the European Central Bank launched the first tranche of its lauded Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO). This is the program where the ECB flooded 523 separate European banks with 489 billion euros worth of 3-year loans to keep them going through Christmas. A second tranche of LTRO loans is planned to launch at the end of February, with expectations for size ranging from 300 billion to more than 1 trillion euros of uptake.2 The good news is that Italian, Portuguese and Spanish bond yields have dropped since the first LTRO went through, which suggests that at least some of the initial LTRO funds have been reinvested back into sovereign debt auctions. The bad news is that the Eurozone banks may now be hooked on what is clearly a back-door quantitative easing (QE) program, and as the warning goes for addictive drugs - once you start, it can be very hard to stop."
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Thursday, February 23, 2012
For Market, There’s No Such Thing as Bad News Now - US Business News - CNBC
For Market, There’s No Such Thing as Bad News Now - US Business News - CNBC: "Nothing, it seems, can stanch the three-month rally — not debt crises, Mideast violence, nor a global slowdown — as the market rides a 20 percent bull-market run that has taken hold since October.
It’s not that there aren’t reasons to sell off — plenty of them in fact. It’s just that nobody seems to care."
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It’s not that there aren’t reasons to sell off — plenty of them in fact. It’s just that nobody seems to care."
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Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
GREECE BAILOUT HAS EXPECTATIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS THAT THEY WILL GO FROM -7% GDP TO -1% GDP IN ABOUT A YEAR!!! WOW IS TIS DOOMED TO FAIL!
You read headlines that Greece is saved (in a carbon copy release from July 21). Now read the truth behind the lies - presenting the 9 page (so it's brief enough) Greek sustainability (or lack thereof) analysis.
Here is the punchline:
The debt trajectory is extremely sensitive to program delays, suggesting that the program could be accident prone, and calling into question sustainability (Table 2). Under the tailored scenario described above, the debt ratio would peak at 178 percent of GDP in 2015. Once growth did recover, fiscal policy achieved its target, and privatization picked up, the debt would begin to slowly decline. Debt to GDP would fall to around 160 percent of GDP by 2020, well above the target of about 120 percent of GDP set by European leaders. Financing needs through 2020 would amount to perhaps €245 billion. Under the assumption that stronger growth could follow on the eventual elimination of the competiveness gap, the debt ratio would slowly converge to that in the baseline, but likely only in the late 2020s. With debt ratios so high in the next decade, smaller shocks would produce unsustainable dynamics, leaving the program highly accident-prone.
And if the downside case means the country is about to need 100% of its GDP in additional funding needs, the reality is that this number most likely be 200%, bringing the total bailout bill for Greece to nearly 3x its GDP!
Becase wait, there's more: the downside case assumes -1.0% GDP decline in 2013. As a reminder, in Q4 Greek GDP imploded by -7%! Somehow we are to believe that within a year, the country will not only turn around its economy, which is foundering courtesy of infinite austerity and striking tax collectors, but almost generate growth???
Monday, February 20, 2012
Apple Tweaks Apps Policy Under Lawmaker Pressure - U.S. Business News - CNBC
Apple Tweaks Apps Policy Under Lawmaker Pressure - U.S. Business News - CNBC: "In the following days, other technology bloggers discovered that iPhone apps like Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare and Foodspotting similarly uploaded user data — without permission, in some cases."
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Friday, February 17, 2012
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Jobless Claims Keep Falling; Inflation Pressure Still Low - US Business News - CNBC
Jobless Claims Keep Falling; Inflation Pressure Still Low - US Business News - CNBC: "Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department said, the lowest since March 2008. The prior week's figure was revised up to 361,000 from the previously reported 358,000."
Philly Fed Rises, Despite Employment Index Slide; Outlook Has Biggest Drop In 6 Months | ZeroHedge
Philly Fed Rises, Despite Employment Index Slide; Outlook Has Biggest Drop In 6 Months | ZeroHedge: "owing yesterday's paradoxical Empire Fed print which saw an increase despite two thirds of its subcomponents dropping, we get a Philly Fed number which came in better than consensus estimates of 9.0, printing at 10.2, compared to 7.3 previously. Here, unlike yesterday, at least the number made sense with New Order rising from 6.9 to 11.7, as well as shipments, unfilled orders, and delivery times. What did not increase was the Number of Employees which dropped from 11.6 to 1.1. But don't tell the BLS. Also don't tell the market that margins are now contracting even more, with Prices Paid rising by 6.9 points as prices received rose by 3.8. Last, and not least, the Six Months Outlook plunged from 49 to 33.3, the largest drop in 6 months"
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Wednesday, February 15, 2012
The decline and fall of the Roman Empire - Jeff Gundlach.
| To ensure you continue to receive our e-mails please add messages@docstoc.com to your Address Book now. |
 Hey, I just found this document on docstoc.com and think you will find it interesting. 2-14-12 JEG Webcast Roman Empire - FINAL |
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
The Triumvirate of Wall Street/ The Fed/ and the White House is Beginning to Crumble | ZeroHedge
The Triumvirate of Wall Street/ The Fed/ and the White House is Beginning to Crumble | ZeroHedge: "The Triumvirate of Wall Street/ The Fed/ and the White House is Beginning to Crumble"
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Monday, February 13, 2012
Documentary Filmmaker Josh Fox Arrested at Fracking Hearing - US News and World Report
Documentary Filmmaker Josh Fox Arrested at Fracking Hearing - US News and World Report: ""The Republican members of that committee that decided to take me out in handcuffs have taken a lot of money from oil and gas," Fox says. "I am used to the intimidation tactics and short-term agenda of both this industry and their bought-and-paid-for representatives in Congress.""
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Sunday, February 12, 2012
Zakaria: Arming the Syrian opposition is risky – Global Public Square - CNN.com Blogs
Zakaria: Arming the Syrian opposition is risky – Global Public Square - CNN.com Blogs: "Eventually, they're going to face real cash shortfalls. And what that means going forward is a really interesting question. This is not a regime that can outlive the sanctions and all this pressure unendingly. They have got one source of cash right now, Iran. And that too is drying up."
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Whither Gold | ZeroHedge
Whither Gold | ZeroHedge: "The prophetic words of Antal Fekete in his now infamous 'essay' on Gold are as relevant now (perhaps more so) as they were when he first wrote them 15 years ago -"
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Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market - Bank of Canada
Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market - Bank of Canada: "If the government and the Bank want to moderate a decline in the relative price of the Canadian dollar, the Bank buys Canadian dollars in foreign exchange markets in exchange for other currencies, mainly U.S. dollars, which come from the Exchange Fund Account. This boosts demand for Canadian dollars and helps support the dollar’s value. To make sure that the Bank’s purchases do not take money out of circulation and create a shortage of Canadian dollars, which could put upward pressure on Canadian interest rates, the Bank “sterilizes” its purchases by redepositing the same amount of Canadian-dollar balances in the financial system."
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The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To €320 Billion In Secured Debt, Or 136% Of Greek GDP | ZeroHedge
The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To €320 Billion In Secured Debt, Or 136% Of Greek GDP | ZeroHedge: "So as of today, merely the ratio of the Greek DIP loan (Debtor In Possession, because Greece is after all broke) has reached a whopping ratio of 136% Debt to GDP. This excludes any standing debt which is for all intents and purposes worthless."
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Europe: "The Flaw" | ZeroHedge
Europe: "The Flaw" | ZeroHedge: "The flaw is that, even in 2012, we retain respect for markets. Unfettered, they are not the tool of choice for resolving the current situation but we see it as essential to work with them and harness their power, rather than against them, as we discussed in Twelve Steps."
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Thursday, February 9, 2012
Initial Claims Print Near Expectations, To Be Revised Adversely Next Week; Productivity Misses, Labor Costs Increase | ZeroHedge
Initial Claims Print Near Expectations, To Be Revised Adversely Next Week; Productivity Misses, Labor Costs Increase | ZeroHedge: "American Airlines laying off tens of thousands? It's all good for the BLS, which just announced that 367K initial unemployment claims were filed in the past week, a number which following next week's upward revision will be just in line with expectations of 371K. As expected, the bullish bias continues with last week's 377K claims number getting revised higher to 379K."
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Jobless Claims Drop To 358K From Upward Revised 373K, Beat Expectations Of 370K | ZeroHedge
Jobless Claims Drop To 358K From Upward Revised 373K, Beat Expectations Of 370K | ZeroHedge: "Just in case the BLS seasonal adjustment needed a little confirmation prodding, here comes the BLS with its weekly initial claims number which at 358K (next week to be revised to over 360K), was a pleasant beat of expectations of 370K, down from an upward revised 373K the prior week."
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2012 - Fed bailing out Banks from fraud AGAIN!! History repeating, read 2009 article prior to this post
ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero: "Because in America, the cost of contractual rights was just announced, and it is $25 billion"
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Article from 2009- The Largest U.S. Banks Have Repeatedly Gone Bankrupt, and the Fed Blessed the Speculation and then Helped Cover Up Their Bankruptcies |
The Largest U.S. Banks Have Repeatedly Gone Bankrupt Due to Wild Speculation, and the Fed Blessed the Speculation and then Helped Cover Up Their Bankruptcies | ZeroHedge: "The Largest U.S. Banks Have Repeatedly Gone Bankrupt Due to Wild Speculation, and the Fed Blessed the Speculation and then Helped Cover Up Their Bankruptcies"
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Guest Post: Introducing The Government’s Newest Unpaid Spy: YOU | ZeroHedge
Guest Post: Introducing The Government’s Newest Unpaid Spy: YOU | ZeroHedge: "This is not a law. It’s simply a new policy that a federal agency decided to impose, in its sole discretion. And it happens every single day across the hundreds of federal agencies in Washington– a sort of ‘self-legislation’ which creates thousands of pages of new regulations that each and every American is obliged to obey.
Not exactly what the Founding Fathers had in mind…"
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Not exactly what the Founding Fathers had in mind…"
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The Biggest Holders of US Government Debt - CNBC
The Biggest Holders of US Government Debt - CNBC: "That’s right, the biggest single holder of U.S. government debt is inside the United States and includes the Federal Reserve system and other intragovernmental holdings. Of this number, The Fed's system of banks owns approximately $1.65 trillion "
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Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Stock Market's Three-Year Rally Has Fed to Thank - US Business News - CNBC
Stock Market's Three-Year Rally Has Fed to Thank - US Business News - CNBC: "San Francisco Fed President John Williams, in a speech Wednesday, also held out the prospect of more QE. He said if the economy loses momentum and inflation remains well below 2 percent, the Fed could do more asset purchases, specifically aimed at mortgage-backed securities."
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Guest Post: Social Fractals And The Corruption of America | ZeroHedge
Guest Post: Social Fractals And The Corruption of America | ZeroHedge: "There are two key social control myths in America: one, that everyone is equal before the law, and two, that similar fundamental opportunities are available to all."
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Alan Dershowitz: Should You Trust Jim Cramer?
Alan Dershowitz: Should You Trust Jim Cramer?: "You know Jim Cramer. He's the star of Mad Money, the guy who tells you how to make lots of dough by taking his advice about hot stocks (such as Bear Sterns just before it crashed). Before that he made lots of money for himself and his clients by running a successful, if controversial, hedge fund."
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Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Monday, February 6, 2012
Who's on first Greek Bailout!
A Chaotic Start to the Week for Greece - US Business News Blog - CNBC: "“No, there is no deadline,” an anonymous Greek politician said.
But EU officials in Brussels insisted that the deadline had passed.
“We have gone beyond the deadline already,” European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj said in a news briefing."
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But EU officials in Brussels insisted that the deadline had passed.
“We have gone beyond the deadline already,” European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj said in a news briefing."
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Sunday, February 5, 2012
BLS Fudged NFP numbers on Employment
"Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs." A 3.3 million "adjustment" solely at the discretion of the BLS?
Car Policy for Less, but Only If You Call - US Business News - CNBC
Car Policy for Less, but Only If You Call - US Business News - CNBC: "Car Policy for Less, but Only If You Call
"
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Friday, February 3, 2012
1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month!
ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero: "1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. "
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Unemployment rate is actually 11.5%. 2 Minutes of Math to disprove BLS... BS!!
Sick of the BLS propaganda? Then do the following calculation with us: using BLS data, the US civilian non-institutional population was 242,269 in January, an increase of 1.7 million month over month: apply the long-term average labor force participation rate of 65.8% to this number (because as chart 2 below shows, people are not retiring as the popular propaganda goes: in fact labor participation in those aged 55 and over has been soaring as more and more old people have to work overtime, forget retiring), and you get 159.4 million: that is what the real labor force should be. The BLS reported one? 154.4 million: a tiny 5 million difference. Then add these people who the BLS is purposefully ignoring yet who most certainly are in dire need of labor and/or a job to the 12.758 million reported unemployed by the BLS and you get 17.776 million in real unemployed workers. What does this mean? That using just the BLS denominator in calculating the unemployed rate of 154.4 million, the real unemployment rate actually rose in January to 11.5%. Compare that with the BLS reported decline from 8.5% to 8.3%. It also means that the spread between the reported and implied unemployment rate just soared to a fresh 30 year high of 3.2%. And that is how with a calculator and just one minute of math, one strips away countless hours of BLS propaganda.
Difference between Reported and Implied Unemployment Rate
And why the Labor Force Participation rate is not declining due to retirement.
Goldman's O'Neill's opinion - Euro Zone: Current Slowdown 'Nothing Like 2008': Goldman’s O’Neill - Business News - CNBC
Euro Zone: Current Slowdown 'Nothing Like 2008': Goldman’s O’Neill - Business News - CNBC: "But while there are plenty of risks to an economic recovery, the start of 2012 is nothing like the 2008-2009 crisis, Jim O’Neill, Chairman at Goldman Sachs Asset Management told CNBC on Thursday."
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Thursday, February 2, 2012
Stock Markets - Feb. 2, 2012 - CNNMoney
Stock Markets - Feb. 2, 2012 - CNNMoney: "The comments raised speculation that the Fed is willing to take additional steps to support the economy if conditions deteriorate, said Doug Roberts, chief market strategist for Channel Capital Research.
"He's saying that if things get worse, I'm available and we're going to ease," said Roberts. "Clearly, he's telling the market that if you decide to bet against me you're going to get killed.""
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"He's saying that if things get worse, I'm available and we're going to ease," said Roberts. "Clearly, he's telling the market that if you decide to bet against me you're going to get killed.""
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Wednesday, February 1, 2012
ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero: "What is new, and absolutely stunning, is Gross' endorsement for president: 'I'm a little Ron Paulish." (6'24" into the clip)... "
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US Adds $120 Billion In Debt Since Debt Ceiling Hike On Friday, $310 Billion More On Deck In Next Two Months | ZeroHedge
US Adds $120 Billion In Debt Since Debt Ceiling Hike On Friday, $310 Billion More On Deck In Next Two Months | ZeroHedge: " Today's number means that in February and March alone Tim Geithner will raise another $310 billion, which will send total debt to $15.7 trillion as of March 31. What is the final debt ceiling? Just under $16.4 trillion. So the US will have $700 billion in debt issuance capacity for the 7 months leading into the presidential election (and 9 until the end of the year)."
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Facebook... The Profile of a Peaked IPO Model !!
The most eagerly awaited IPO of the decade has just filed its S-1 statement (link). Some real time observations:
- Symbol: FB
- Proposed maximum aggregate offering price: $5 Billion
- 845 million monthly active users (MAU)
- 483 million daily active users (DAU)
- Users generated on average 2.7 billion Likes and Comments per day in Q4 2011. Er..."liking" is monetizable?
- 100 billion friendships
- 250 million photos uploaded per day
- FB generated $3.7 billion in Revenue in 2011, up from $2 billion in 2010
- FB generated $1 billion in net income in 2011, up from $606 billion in 2010, a 40% growth rate, compared to the 165% growth rate from 2009's $229MM.
- EBIT margin peaked at 52.3% in 2010 ($1MM in EBIT on $2 billion in revenue), has since declined to 47.3% or $1.756Bn on $3.711Bn in Revenue
- $3.9 billion in cash and marketable securities
- Peaked model? - MAU additions peaked in 2010 when FB added 248MM to a total of 608MM; in 2011 it added 237MM to 845MM
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