Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Facebook... The Profile of a Peaked IPO Model !!

The most eagerly awaited IPO of the decade has just filed its S-1 statement (link). Some real time observations:
  • Symbol: FB
  • Proposed maximum aggregate offering price: $5 Billion
  • 845 million monthly active users (MAU)
  • 483 million daily active users (DAU)
  • Users generated on average 2.7 billion Likes and Comments per day in Q4 2011. Er..."liking" is monetizable?
  • 100 billion friendships
  • 250 million photos uploaded per day
  • FB generated $3.7 billion in Revenue in 2011, up from $2 billion in 2010
  • FB generated $1 billion in net income in 2011, up from $606 billion in 2010, a 40% growth rate, compared to the 165% growth rate from 2009's $229MM.
  • EBIT margin peaked at 52.3% in 2010 ($1MM in EBIT on $2 billion in revenue), has since declined to 47.3% or $1.756Bn on $3.711Bn in Revenue
  • $3.9 billion in cash and marketable securities
  • Peaked model? - MAU additions peaked in 2010 when FB added 248MM to a total of 608MM; in 2011 it added 237MM to 845MM

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