Thursday, October 1, 2015

CNBC - Everything is A-OK. Real world - Falling apart. 3 Headlines - Below

CNBC Headline



Fiat Chrysler sales jump 14 pct amid big sector expectations:



 ""The U.S. is adding jobs, disposable income is rising, energy prices and interest rates remain low and business continues to invest, but the fact remains this has been a slow recovery," said Mustafa Mohatarem, GM's chief economist.

"The economy still has room to grow and so do auto sales, particularly now that the millennials are entering the workforce and starting households," he added."



GM Channel stuffing obviously at all time high





Zero Hedge Headline at exactly the same time



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-01/does-not-compute-dol-continues-paint-rosy-jobless-claims-picture-challenger-sees-sur



Even more curious was the drop in Continuing Claims which declined from 2244K to just 2191K, below the 2,230K expected, suggesting tomorrow's NFP report should have no problem priting above 200K.
Which on the surface is great... and then one looks at the Challenger Job Cuts report released just an hour earlier, which painted a dramatically different picture. From theChallenger report:
The third quarter ended with a surge in job cuts, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to shed 58,877 in September, a 43 percent increase from the previous month, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The September total was third largest of the year behind July (105,696) and April (61,582). It was 93 percent higher than the 30,477 planned layoffs announced the same month a year ago.

In all, 205,759 job cuts were announced in the third quarter, making it the largest job-cut quarter since the third quarter of 2009, when planned layoffs totaled 240,233.
It gets even more confusing when looking at the full year trend, where one notices that so far in 2015, employers have announced 493,431 planned layoffs, 36 percent more than the 363,408 cuts tracked from January through September a year ago. The year-to-date total is actually 2.0 percent higher than the 2014 year-end total of 483,171. "The Q3 total was 40 percent higher than the previous quarter’s 181,213 job cuts. It was 75 percent higher than the third quarter of 2014, when 117,374 job cuts were announced."






http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-01/atlanta-fed-slashes-q3-gdp-estimate-50-just-09



Yesterday, when the Atlanta Fed boosted its Q3 GDP tracker from 1.4% to 1.8%, the permabulls were crowing how the global recession has been called off. We are confident they will be mysteriously mute, however, following today's dramatic revision lower which cut the number for the current quarter by half to just 0.9% as a result of the previously reported tumble in the advance report on U.S. international trade which slashed the Atlanta Fed's model contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points to -0.9%.



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