JP MORGAN: US recession risk is growing - Business Insider: "As JP Morgan notes, a 10% year-on-year drop in corporate profitability is a rare event outside of a recession. On past occasions when this has come to pass businesses spending and labour market hiring has tended to slow, resulting in a recession more times than not.
To Kasman, Hensley and Lupton the slowdown does not immediately foreshadow a US recession, but the risks of such an outcome occurring are building.
“With the drag on US earnings intensifying and business spending softening, the risks of a broader business pullback remain elevated. Our US recession probability tracker has moved higher in recent weeks, reinforcing this point,” wrote the trio.
The chart below is the bank's US recession probability tracker. At present it calculates the odds of a US recession as a one-in-four chance over the next 12 months."
'via Blog this'
No comments:
Post a Comment