Friday, February 14, 2014

Guest Post: The Cash On The Sidelines Myth Lives On | Zero Hedge

Guest Post: The Cash On The Sidelines Myth Lives On | Zero Hedge: "The 'cash on the sidelines' myth has more lives than a cat. No matter how often the logical fallacy underlying it is pointed out, Wall Street continues to propagate it. Nevertheless, money and credit are of course extremely important factors in the analysis of asset markets. The above provides what are hopefully a few useful pointers as to which data one should keep an eye on in this context."



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Rydex money market fund assets as a percentage of all Rydex assets have hit their lowest level since March 2000 at the end of 2013. Not a propitious indication with respect to the 'cash on the sidelines' myth. Rydex traders sure seem to be as 'all in' as they ever get



All retail money funds (NSA) -  over the past 18 months. They have been mired near the lowest levels in 16 years



Mutual fund cash – fund managers were deeply pessimistic in the first decade of the last secular bull market, and when their pessimism gradually unwound in the 1990s, the bull market went into overdrive and became the biggest bubble in terms of valuations ever seen. Right now this group harbors exactly zero skepticism and is invested up to its eyebrows



NYSE credit balances are deeply negative and investor 'net worth' is thus at its lowest level ever. Fuel for a bull market certainly existed in late 2002/early 2003 and again in late 2008/early 2009, but by now margin debt has expanded to truly vertiginous heights. Not even the tech mania of 2000 can any longer hold a candle to this



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