US Bureau of Economic Analysis mistakenly issues data early - KXXV-TV News Channel 25 - Central Texas News and Weather for Waco, Temple, Killeen |

US Bureau of Economic Analysis mistakenly issues data early - KXXV-TV News Channel 25 - Central Texas News and Weather for Waco, Temple, Killeen |: "US Bureau of Economic Analysis mistakenly issues data early
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - The government on Tuesday mistakenly released data on consumer spending for November the day before its scheduled release.

In a statement issued at 8:20 p.m. EST Tuesday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said there had been an "inadvertent release" of some data pertaining to consumer spending during November. The statement didn't say how long the data had been public before the mistake was discovered.

The prematurely released data showed that consumer spending for November increased 0.3 percent, in line with analysts' forecasts.

In its statement, BEA said it would "take steps to ensure that this does not happen again and will take all appropriate action to safeguard economic data."

BEA released a more comprehensive November report on spending, along with data on income growth and inflation, at the regularly scheduled time of 8:30 a.m. EST Thursday morning.

Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed."



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U.S. existing home sales plunge; new rules seen as drag | Reuters

U.S. existing home sales plunge; new rules seen as drag | Reuters: "U.S. home resales posted their sharpest drop in five years in November, a potential warning sign for the health of the U.S. economy although new regulations on paperwork for home purchases may have driven the decline.

The National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday existing home sales plunged 10.5 percent to an annual rate of4.76 million units. That was the sharpest decline since July 2010. October's sales pace was revised slightly lower to 5.32 million units.

Housing has been providing a sizable boost to U.S. economic growth this year as a strengthening labor market and low interest rates have helped young adults to leave their parents' homes.





 Economists had forecast sales rising to a rate of 5.35 million units last month."



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What Benefits To Savers? Banks Rush To Hike Prime Rate To 3.50%, Forget To Increase Deposit Rate | Zero Hedge

What Benefits To Savers? Banks Rush To Hike Prime Rate To 3.50%, Forget To Increase Deposit Rate | Zero Hedge:



"Someone forgot to give the banks the memo that the Fed's first rate hike since 2006 was supposed to, at least on paper, benefit the savers of America and not so much the, well, banks.. Because the ink hadn't even dried on the Fed's statement and one after another banks revealed that they would promptly boost their Prime lending rate from the current benchmark of 3.25% to the new Fed Funds-implied prime rate of 3.50%.

As a reminder, while generically comparable to LIBOR, a bank's prime rate is the rate at which banks lend to their most creditworthy customers, clients and large corporations. But what makes the Prime hike most important is that it is used as the benchmark for other loans like credit card and small-business loans.

In other words, banks wasted no time to serve their indebted customers with the cost of the Fed's rate hike. Banks such as:

•  Wells Fargo 
• US Bankcorp 
• JPMorgan 
• M&T 
• PNC 
• Citi 

And soon every other bank.

 As CNBC reported, "a change in the federal funds rate will have no impact on the interest rates on existing fixed-rate mortgage and other fixed-rate consumer loans, a Wells Fargo representative told CNBC. Existing home equity lines of credit, credit cards and other consumer loans with variable interest rates tied to the prime rate will be impacted if the prime rate rises, the person said."

The good news: the rates on mortgages, auto loans or college tuition aren't expected to jump anytime soon, according to AP, although in time those will rise as well unless the long-end of the curve flattens even more than the 25 bps increase on the short end.



 What about the other end of the question: the interest banks pay on deposits? Well, no rush there:



 "We won't automatically change deposit rates because they aren't tied directly to the prime," a JPMorgan Chase spokesperson told CNBC. "We'll continue to monitor the market to make sure we stay competitive."



 Bottom line: for those who carry a balance on their credit cards, their interest payment is about to increase. Meanwhile, those who have savings at US banks, please don't hold your breath to see any increase on the meager interest said deposits earn: after all banks are still flooded with about $2.5 trillion in excess reserves, which means that the last thing banks care about is being competitive when attracting deposits."



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Federal Reserve raises key interest rate for first time in nearly a decade - The Washington Post

Federal Reserve raises key interest rate for first time in nearly a decade - The Washington Post:



"The unanimous decision will nudge the central bank's benchmark interest rate up from near zero by a quarter of one percent to a range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent. The move is small, but it amounts to a vote of confidence that the American economy -- dogged by volatile oil prices, a slowdown in China and weak global growth -- will stand resilient. But the Fed also pledged to wean the nation off its stimulus slowly, an acknowledgement that further progress is not guaranteed and that the central bank is operating in uncharted territory.



 "I feel confident about the fundamentals," Fed Chair Janet Yellen told reporters after the vote. "We have been concerned  about the risks from the global economy. Those risks persist, but the U.S. economy has shown considerable strength.""





Keywords - Rates raise Yellen



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Marc Faber: This is ‘precisely the wrong time’ for Fed to hike

Marc Faber: This is ‘precisely the wrong time’ for Fed to hike: "Meanwhile, the outlook for American equities looks weak as well, according to Faber.

"I don't think U.S. stocks are attractive by any measurement. They are expensive and earnings are going down, and if anything, eventually interest rates will be higher," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

Of course, he has had a bearish outlook on American equities for many years while they have surged.

Meanwhile, when asked where he sees opportunity, Faber turned to Asia, mentioning Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Laos and Myanmar."



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The Dawn of the Profitable Unicorn | Michael Moritz | LinkedIn

The Dawn of the Profitable Unicorn | Michael Moritz | LinkedIn: "In 2000 Nortel sported a market value of $209 billion that, like those of its classmates, had been bloated by the enthusiasm of the era; it has since gone bankrupt. While other members of this corporate bracket have avoided that ignominy, their long-term stock charts present bleak pictures. Cisco’s market value has faded from $403 billion to $144 billion; Intel’s from $288 billion to $161 billion; and EMC’s from $218 billion to $51 billion. "



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Chris Blackhurst: What businesses can learn from 'most admired' companies Shell and Unilever | Business | London Evening Standard

Chris Blackhurst: What businesses can learn from 'most admired' companies Shell and Unilever | Business | London Evening Standard: "What characterises them is a strong, long-term management culture. They move people around the organisation, from division to division, product to product. They’re given managerial responsibility early on. They’re taught how to lead, delegate and get the best out of one another. Neither company tolerates egotists; show-offs are soon shown the exit."



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Massive insider selling spurs stock market concerns

Massive insider selling spurs stock market concerns: "Corporate insiders have been selling their shares at near-record levels, and according to some, this could be a sign for outside investors to start selling as well.

Investment research firm TrimTabs reported on Wednesday that insider selling reached $7.6 billion for the month of November, the fourth-highest monthly level on record."



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Middle Class Americans 'No Longer Majority,' New Report Says - NBC News

Middle Class Americans 'No Longer Majority,' New Report Says - NBC News: "According to Pew's report, the 21st century has seen "middle-income Americans" fall behind financially. The median income of middle income households fell by 4 percent between the year 2000 and 2014, while median wealth - assets minus debts - fell by 28 percent between 2001 and 2013.

In 2015, 9 percent of Americans were seen as being in the highest income tier, "more than double the 4 percent share in 1971." The percentage of American adults in the lowest income tier has also risen, from 16 percent in 1971 to 20 percent in 2015.

In 2015 12 percent of adults were living in the upper middle tier, up from 10 percent in 1971. Nine percent were seen as being in the lower middle tier, unchanged from 1971.

The report defines middle income homes as "those with an income that is 67 percent to 200 percent... of the overall median household income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size."

It finds that "the hollowing of the American middle class has proceeded steadily for more than four decades," and that the share of Americans residing in middle-income homes "has fallen from 61 percent in 1971 to 50 percent in 2015."

The report finds that the biggest winners since the seventies are those 65 and over. Their poverty rate has fallen from 24.6 percent in 1970 to just 10 percent in 2014. In contrast, young adults - those aged between 18 and 29 - have seen their share in lower income tiers increase. "



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The tale of 2 Economies...Misinformation rules for the mainstream. The usual suspects to start...

And then beneath the covers...

Why This Sucker Is Going Down... Again...Echoes of 1929

Why This Sucker Is Going Down... Again | Zero Hedge:



"Instead, what happened was that the reckless expansion of bank credit during the years prior to the 1929 crash was liquidated because it couldn’t be serviced or repaid. 



Total loans outstanding had grown from $15 billion to $40 billion during the proceeding decade and one-half, but much of it had gone into margin loans on Wall Street, real estate speculation and massive over-investment in US export and capital goods industries that collapsed once Wall Street financing of foreign customers dried up after the crash.

So the money supply measured as M1 shrunk by about 30% during the three years after the crash because bad loans were being liquidated and bank deposits extinguished. There was no disappearance of that Keynesian ether called “aggregate demand”. Rather, it was that the phony wealth of the prior credit boom which inexorably evaporated.

Needless to say, the events in the fall of 2008 had nothing to do with what actually occurred after the 1929 crash. Back then the US was the world’s powerhouse exporter and creditor, but like in China today the apparent prosperity of the times depended upon vendor finance.

That is, with the help of the Federal Reserve, the US banking system and bond market had advanced the equivalent of $2 trillion in today’s economic scale to foreign customers of US farmers and manufacturers.

When the stock market bubble collapsed in October 1929, however, the Wall Street market in foreign debt went stone cold, triggering a cascade of worldwide defaults. By early 1933, the booming foreign debt market of the 1920s had become the subprime mortgage market of its day—-with debt prices sinking to less than ten cents on the dollar.

In short order, Warren Buffett’s famous metaphor about naked swimmers being exposed when the tide goes out was well demonstrated; it transpired that US export customers had been borrowing new money in order to pay interest on their accumulating debts, but without access to new credits they had no option but to drastically curtail new orders.

Accordingly, US exports collapsed by 80% during the three years after the 1929 peak, leaving US industry stranded in excess capacity and overloaded with working inventories of raw materials, intermediate goods and finished products.

The latter, for example, dropped from $40 billion to $18 billion and capital spending dropped by 75% during 1930-1933. Likewise, with the collapse of the stock market and the easy credit boom, sales of durable goods like autos, washing machines and radios dropped by upwards of 70%.



 In short, the Great Depression was not an avoidable mistake of the Fed during 1930-1933 as Bernanke falsely demonstrated when he xeroxed Milton Friedman’s erroneous history of the 1930s; it was the economic consequence of the unsustainable 1916-1929 credit and financial bubble that had been fostered by the Fed."



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Misinformation = Market Boost = Frustration...This will keep getting worse until the manipulation ceases.

Below are two versions of the same Unemployment report

US weekly jobless claims total 260,000 vs 270,000 estimate

Continuing Jobless Claims Rise At Fastest Pace Since July 2013

Steen Jakobsen Warns "First It Will Get Worse..." | Zero Hedge

Steen Jakobsen Warns "First It Will Get Worse..." | Zero Hedge: "We have never been more monitored and never been less private, yet the ability to preempt terrorism seems low.



                                             Maybe technology is not the answer? 



More jobs, less debt, less inequality, more, far more education, more belief in people and perhaps less in machines is the answer?"



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Q3 GDP Revised Higher As Inventories Surge Again, Personal Consumption Disappoints | Zero Hedge

Q3 GDP Revised Higher As Inventories Surge Again, Personal Consumption Disappoints | Zero Hedge:


"So what drove the jump?

The "old faithful" plug to "growth" inventories, which instead of dropping at an annualized 1.44% as in the original release, declined just 0.59% annualized, meaning that instead of contributing $62.2 billion, inventories jumped a material $100.6 billion, confirming that the inventory liquidation is still to take place, and as a result we now expect substantial downward revisions to Q4 GDP in the coming hours as Wall Street has no choice but to assume the inventory reduction will now be shifted to Q4."

The punchline: if it wasn't for the $40 billion surge in inventories shown above, Q3 GDP would be 1.2%!


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U.S. GDP growth raised for third quarter | Reuters

U.S. GDP growth raised for third quarter | Reuters: "The Commerce Department on Tuesday said the nation's gross domestic product grew at a 2.1 percent annual pace, not the 1.5 percent rate it reported last month, as businesses reduced an inventory bloat less aggressively than previously believed."



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Food trucks cooking up restaurant empires

Food trucks cooking up restaurant empires: "To general manager Elizabeth Petrosian of Portland, Oregon's Burrasca, launching the rustic Tuscan concept as a food truck — or cart, as it's called in Portland — was the critical first step towards realizing that she and chef Paolo Calamai's ultimate business plan: a sit-down restaurant."



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Albert Edwards Explains What The Next Stage In Global Currency War Look Like | Zero Hedge

Albert Edwards Explains What The Next Stage In Global Currency War Look Like | Zero Hedge:



"Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation.

A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly.

Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to +3.4 percent in 1934. The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt's devaluation”.
 "



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No Joke! The Onion Predicted All Of This Back In 2003 | Zero Hedge

No Joke! The Onion Predicted All Of This Back In 2003 | Zero Hedge: "“George W. Bush may think that a war against Iraq is the solution to our problems, but the reality is, it will only serve to create far more,” read a 2003 article on The Onion a week after then-President George Bush launched the Iraq War. While a wide variety of organizations and individuals also rebuked that invasion, the satirical newspaper offered one of the most accurate assessments to date. So accurate, in fact, it all but predicted the rise of the Islamic State."



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Gold- Physical Sales Surge, as Paper Prices Plummet | Zero Hedge

Physical Sales Surge, as Paper Prices Plummet | Zero Hedge: "The spread between spot and physical continues to widen. Anyone who attempts to buy the real physical metal and have it delivered to your location will quickly begin to understand how out of line these two markets have become.

The US Mint backs this story, stating that the sales of its ever popular US Gold Eagles surged by 400,000 ounces last quarter.

Typically this demand has been from the East, as they are deeply linked with precious metals and know its true value in times just such as these. Ironically, this is not the case, as most of the surge in demand has been originating from the United States.

The World Gold Council has reported that the demand for gold coins and bars exploded by 207% in the last quarter, perhaps signalling that investors are finally starting to see the writing on the wall."



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Blackstone COO: 'Bit of a correction coming'

Blackstone COO: 'Bit of a correction coming': " President and COO Tony James said Tuesday stock market valuations are ahead of themselves, and a correction is coming.

James ticked off a number of headwinds: the impact of the Paris terror attacks, higher U.S. interest rates on the horizon, weaker growth in China and problems in South American economies.

"The cumulative effect of that is, where do you look for good news that's not already reflected in the market? Earnings of the S&P are flat at best, so I think stock prices have had a great run and it's time for a pause," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "We see a bit of a correction coming."

Blackstone has exited "a lot of investments" where it can and is poised to take advantage of a correction with "a lot of capital," he said."



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Nicole Miller CEO: Here’s the problem with retail

Nicole Miller CEO: Here’s the problem with retail: "In their efforts to cast as wide a net as possible, retailers — particularly in clothing — have made their designs boring, Nicole Miller CEO Bud Konheim said Tuesday."



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Four US Firms With $4.8 Billion In Debt Warned This Week They May Default Any Minute | Zero Hedge

Four US Firms With $4.8 Billion In Debt Warned This Week They May Default Any Minute | Zero Hedge: "Four firms owing a combined $4.8 billion warned this week that they may be at the brink, with Penn Virginia Corp., Paragon Offshore Plc, Magnum Hunter Resources Corp. and Emerald Oil Inc. saying their auditors have expressed doubts that they can continue as going concerns. Falling oil prices are squeezing access to credit, they said. And everyone from Morgan Stanley to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is predicting that energy prices won’t rebound anytime soon.
 
The industry is bracing for a wave of failures as investors that were stung by bets on an improving market earlier this year try to stay away from the sector. Barclays Plc analysts say that will cause the default rate among speculative-grade companies to double in the next year. Marathon Asset Management is predicting default rates among high-yield energy companies will balloon to as high as 25 percent cumulatively in the next two to three years if oil remains below $60 a barrel.
 "



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Housing Bubble - Part Deux | Zero Hedge

Housing Bubble - Part Deux | Zero Hedge: "At this point there is no scenario that turns out positive for the housing market. If the Fed has the guts to raise rates, the housing market will tank because mortgage rates will rise. If the Fed chickens out again, it will be because the economy is clearly in recession and demand for overpriced homes will plummet as unemployment rises. Home prices have risen so far above fair value at this point, the market is already beginning to topple.

Flippers are getting stuck with houses they can’t flip for a profit. Hedge funds have stopped buying and have begun selling. Anyone dumb enough to have been lured into this market in the last few years will be underwater in no time. The foreclosure train will be leaving the station shortly. We’ve been here before. "



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Australian Media Throws Up All Over 'Stellar' Jobs Report: "Don't Believe The Jobs Figures!" | Zero Hedge

Australian Media Throws Up All Over 'Stellar' Jobs Report: "Don't Believe The Jobs Figures!" | Zero Hedge: "Wait, what: confidence boosting data is unreliable? Surely you jest.

And here is the ABC's conclusion confirming at least one "developed" country still have a thinking media: "don't be surprised if the October labour market data is revised."

If only we could say the same about propaganda rags in the United States..."



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ECB's Draghi calls for 'fair' clean-up of risky Greek loans | Reuters

ECB's Draghi calls for 'fair' clean-up of risky Greek loans | Reuters: "ECB's Draghi calls for 'fair' clean-up of risky Greek loans
FRANKFURT
Loans to the poor in Greece should be kept by the country's banks, the head of the European Central Bank said on Thursday, calling for 'social fairness' in addressing any spin off of the country's risky credit."



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Kool-Aid Headline followed by forensic detail in next post - BOOM! Nonfarm payrolls up 271,000; jobs rate at 5%

Nonfarm payrolls: 271K, vs expected 180K; Unemployment rate 5%: "Job growth surged in October, rebounding from a late-summer slowdown that raised concerns about whether global slowness was infecting the U.S.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls grew 271,000 for the month, a sharp jump from weak August and September numbers. The headline unemployment rate declined to 5.0 percent, declining even as the civilian labor force increased by 313,000.

A broader measure of unemployment that includes those who have stopped looking as well as those working part time for economic reasons declined to 9.8 percent, the first time it's been below 10 percent since May 2008.

Perhaps more important than the headline number was the growth in average hourly earnings, which jumped 9 cents, representing a monthly gain of 0.6 percent and an annualized increase of 2.5 percent. The average work week remained at 34.5 hours."



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Who Hired In October: The Full Breakdown By Industry | Zero Hedge

Who Hired In October: The Full Breakdown By Industry | Zero Hedge:



"We know that 271K jobs were added in October; we also know that workers 55 and over got a whopping 378,000 of the jobs (this was the biggest montly gain for this age group since January 2012, a month when total job gains were 380K, the third highest since the crisis), while males aged 25-54 lost 119,000 jobs. But who was hiring in October?

Below is the breakdown of select industries which, according to the BLS, were most active in October hiring. The breakdown:

Education and Health: +57K
Professional Services: +54K
Retail Trade: +44K
Leisure and Hospitality: +41K
Temp Help: +25K
And Manufacturing workers: +0

In short, one more month where the bulk of job additions went to the lowest paying jobs, including teachers, waiters, entry level professionals, retail trade, and temp workers, while the US industrial economy continues to stagnate."









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File and suspend Social Security strategy ending

File and suspend Social Security strategy ending: ""

Under the current rules, once you reach your full retirement age, you are able to file for your Social Security benefits, but request that such benefit not actually be paid," said Jeffrey Levine, a certified public accountant and IRA technical consultant at Ed Slott & Company. "By doing so, you can receive what are known as delayed credits,which increase your own Social Security benefit by 8 percent per year, not counting any cost-of-living adjustments that may also be added."

By using the file-and-suspend strategy, you and your spouse can both allow other family members to claim a benefit based on your earnings record, while at the same time allowing your own benefit to continue to compound and grow.



After May 1, instead of family members being allowed to receive a benefit based on your earnings record after you've merely filed, the law makes it necessary for you to actually be receiving benefits for them to do so, Levine said.

What you can do: If you are at your full retirement age or older, you can "file and suspend" your Social Security benefits by May 1 and still have a spouse or child collect benefits based on your earnings record, while your own benefit is suspended."



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The Exchange: Why Ben Bernanke, appointed by Bush, is no longer a Republican

The Exchange: Why Ben Bernanke, appointed by Bush, is no longer a Republican: "Ben Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve chairman, is unapologetic about the central bank’s response to the great financial crisis. As he tells our editor Rob Cox, and outlines in his new book “The Courage to Act,” the Fed was given little help by a dysfunctional Congress in reviving the U.S. economy. In the absence of fiscal policy, the Fed had to do all the heavy lifting. As Bernanke tells Rob, it’s one reason Bernanke, who was appointed by President George W. Bush, has dropped his affiliation with the Republican Party."



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Wall St. ends down after energy slide, Yellen comments | Reuters

Wall St. ends down after energy slide, Yellen comments | Reuters:



 "Stocks added to losses after comments by Yellen, who told Congress the Fed expects the economy to continue to grow at a pace that returns inflation to policy-makers' target and that "if the incoming information supports that expectation ... December would be a live possibility" for a rate increase."



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A Brief History Of Crime: How The Fed Became The Undemocratic, Corrupt & Destructive Force It Is Today | Zero Hedge

A Brief History Of Crime: How The Fed Became The Undemocratic, Corrupt & Destructive Force It Is Today | Zero Hedge:



 "
History suggests that the only way to rein in the sprawling Federal Reserve is to end its money monopoly and restore the American people’s ability to use gold as a competing currency.
The legislative compromise that created the Fed in 1913 recognized that the power to print money, left unchecked, could corrupt both the government and the economy. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve System without a centralized balance sheet, a central monetary-policy committee or even a central office.
 

The Fed’s regional banks were prohibited from buying government debt and required to maintain a 40% gold reserve against dollars in circulation. Moreover, each of the reserve banks was obligated to redeem dollars for gold at a fixed price in unlimited amounts.
 
Over the past century, every one of these constraints has been removed. Today the Fed has a centrally managed balance sheet of $4 trillion, and is the largest participant in the market for U.S. government bonds. The dollar is no longer fixed to gold, and the IRS assesses a 28% marginal tax on realized gains when gold is used as currency.
  

The largest increases in the Fed’s power have occurred at moments of financial stress. Federal Reserve banks first financed the purchase of government bonds during World War I. The gold-reserve requirement was dramatically reduced and a central monetary policy-committee was created during the Great Depression. President Richard Nixon broke the last link to gold to stave off a run on the dollar in 1971."



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Key Apple Supplier Halts Hiring Due To Poor iPhone Sales | Zero Hedge

Key Apple Supplier Halts Hiring Due To Poor iPhone Sales | Zero Hedge: " Taiwan’s Pegatron Corp - maker of Apple's next-gen iPhone 6S and iPad - has halted hiring in its Shanghai factory as workers note "sales of iPhone 6S have been disappointing.""



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Technical chart analysis shows why the Nasdaq will pass 5200 to hit 5800 - Uh Huh !!

Technical chart analysis shows why the Nasdaq will pass 5200 to hit 5800: "Chart: Here's why the Nasdaq will pass 5,200
Daryl Guppy
5 Hours Ago"



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Weak U.S. data clouds December rate hike possibility | Reuters

Weak U.S. data clouds December rate hike possibility | Reuters: "U.S. consumer spending in September recorded its smallest gain in eight months as personal income barely rose, suggesting some cooling in domestic demand after recent hefty increases.

The Commerce Department data and another report from the Labor Department on Friday also showed weak inflationary pressures, which would argue against the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of the year.

U.S. central bank policymakers this week put a rate hike in December on the table with a direct reference to their final meeting of the year. The Fed has kept benchmark overnight interest rates near zero since December 2008.

"It will be difficult for the Fed to justify a rate hike at a time when income, consumption, and inflation are trending lower, leaving a December rate hike less likely than prior to the data," said Jay Morelock, an economist at FTN Financial in New York.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, edged up 0.1 percent last month after rising 0.4 percent rise in August. September's consumer spending data was included in Thursday's third-quarter gross domestic product report."



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"It's Not A Risk-On Rally, This Is The Biggest Short Squeeze In Years" Says Bank Of America | Zero Hedge

"It's Not A Risk-On Rally, This Is The Biggest Short Squeeze In Years" Says Bank Of America | Zero Hedge: "Today, we got confirmation that what the rally of the past week has been all about is precisely that: a massive short-covering squeeze, when Bank of America's Mike Hartnett looked at the latest weekly fund flow data and noted a "monster $53bn MMF inflows vs redemptions from equity ($4.3bn) & fixed income funds ($2.4bn)...rising cash levels indicate big risk rally (from intraday lows last week SPX +7.7%, EEM +13.5%, HYG +4.2%) driven primarily by short-covering rather than fresh risk-on.""



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S&P Set For Biggest Ever Monthly Point Gain As Central Banks Go All In | Zero Hedge

S&P Set For Biggest Ever Monthly Point Gain As Central Banks Go All In | Zero Hedge: "We said that "either a central bank intervenes, or a massive forced buy-in event occurs, and unleashes the mother of all short squeezes, sending the S&P500 to new all time highs."

Since then two things have happened: one after another central bank did intervene, leading to the biggest VIX monthly drop in history..."



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Guess what! That's NOT the IRS calling

Guess what! That's NOT the IRS calling:



" IRS will never initiate contact with a taxpayer by phone, email, text or social media to ask for personal or financial information. Indeed, the IRS will not call you and demand immediate payment on any taxes owed. The IRS handles any issues with taxes you owe by mailing you an official bill."



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Auto Loan Market "Reminds Me Of What Happened Right Before The Crisis", Top Regulator Warns | Zero Hedge

Auto Loan Market "Reminds Me Of What Happened Right Before The Crisis", Top Regulator Warns | Zero Hedge:



 " 
Subprime car-loan originations have taken off in recent years as lenders have loosened underwriting criteria in this sector, allowing for borrowers with low, and often no, credit scores to get access to financing. During the first half of 2015, lenders gave out $56.4 billion in subprime auto loans, up 13% from the same period a year ago and up 181% from the first half of 2009, when the market for these loans bottomed out, according to credit-reporting firm Equifax Inc.
 
Subprime car loans account for 20% of the car-loan dollars given out from January through June, the highest share for the period since 2008, according to Equifax."



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Housing - There's No Way Out | Zero Hedge

Housing - There's No Way Out | Zero Hedge:



"I have 3 observations.

•  The recovery in total starts since 2010 has regained less than the post 1972 average. 
• Multifamily starts are near the peak levels of the 1978-87 decade, which is to say, nearing “as good as it gets,” and unlikely to be additionally accretive for the US economy. 
• There is no single family housing market. It has recovered only to 1982 recession levels. Prior to the 2008-2012 housing depression, that was the worst housing market in the US since single family starts reporting began in 1959. The single family housing industry in the US is still in a depression."

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Draghi Dreams Extend US Stock-Buying-Frenzy To Best Since 2011 | Zero Hedge

Draghi Dreams Extend US Stock-Buying-Frenzy To Best Since 2011 | Zero Hedge:



"And all that mattered was what USDJPY did..."



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Nasdaq Futures Soar After Microsoft, Google, Amazon And AT&T All Beat, Surge | Zero Hedge

Nasdaq Futures Soar After Microsoft, Google, Amazon And AT&T All Beat, Surge | Zero Hedge:



"The "old economy" may be on the verge, if not already in a recession, but the "virtual/advertising economy", especially the one connecting the smart phone in your hand to some cloud, is thriving, and as a result Nasdaq is soaring after hours."



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DOJ Closes Lois Lerner Investigation Without Charges | Zero Hedge

DOJ Closes Lois Lerner Investigation Without Charges | Zero Hedge:



Confirming once again that the U.S. has full devolved into a total banana republic, moments ago CNN reported that the US Department of "Justice" is closing its two-year investigation into whether the IRS improperly targeted tea party and other conservative groups. There will be no charges against former IRS official Lois Lerner or anyone else at the agency, the Justice Department said in a letter.







 "The DOJ's finding:

 The probe found "substantial evidence of mismanagement, poor judgment and institutional inertia leading to the belief by many tax-exempt applicants that the IRS targeted them based on their political viewpoints. But poor management is not a crime."
 
"We found no evidence that any IRS official acted based on political, discriminatory, corrupt, or other inappropriate motives that would support a criminal prosecution," Assistant Attorney General Peter Kadzik said in the letter. "We also found no evidence that any official involved in the handling of tax-exempt applications or IRS leadership attempted to obstruct justice. Based on the evidence developed in this investigation and the recommendation of experienced career prosecutors and supervising attorneys at the department, we are closing our investigation and will not seek any criminal charges.""



'via Blog this'

Goodbye Middle Class: 51% Of All American Workers Make Less Than $30,000 A Year | Zero Hedge

Goodbye Middle Class: 51% Of All American Workers Make Less Than $30,000 A Year | Zero Hedge: "

-38 percent of all American workers made less than $20,000 last year.

-51 percent of all American workers made less than $30,000 last year.

-62 percent of all American workers made less than $40,000 last year.

-71 percent of all American workers made less than $50,000 last year."



'via Blog this'

Truth Is Being Suppressed By The Tools Of Money | Zero Hedge

Truth Is Being Suppressed By The Tools Of Money | Zero Hedge:



"Today the top 0.1% of households now control an equivalent amount of the wealth as the bottom 90%. Since 1973, real family income for the top 1 percent has grown over 150% while incomes for the lowest 20% of earners has remained stagnant. The median household income adjusted for inflation in 2011 was just below its level from 1989 and $4,000 lower than in the year 2000."



'via Blog this'

Ferrari offers Wall Street a distraction, major earnings ahead

Ferrari offers Wall Street a distraction, major earnings ahead:



 "While S&P 500 companies are mostly beating on the bottom line, 60 percent have seen weaker revenue growth. Profits are expected to decline by about 4 percent this quarter, according to Thomson Reuters.
On the data front, no key releases are scheduled for Wednesday."



'via Blog this'

Insurance premiums: Is $100 the next Obamacare hurdle?

Insurance premiums: Is $100 the next Obamacare hurdle?: "A large majority of adults say "$100 a month or less" is the highest monthly premium they can afford to pay for health insurance in 2016, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The HealthPocket.com report found that 57 percent of respondents named that price range when asked about coverage affordability. The second-most common answer was $200 per month, which was the response of just 17 percent of respondents."



'via Blog this'

Banks Turn Down Deposits As Stealth NIRP Takes Hold | Zero Hedge

Banks Turn Down Deposits As Stealth NIRP Takes Hold | Zero Hedge: "
U.S. banks are going to new lengths to ward off a surprising threat to their financial health: big cash deposits.



 State Street Corp., the Boston bank that manages assets for institutional investors, for the first time has begun charging some customers for large dollar deposits, people familiar with the matter said. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the nation’s largest bank by assets, has cut unwanted deposits by more than $150 billion this year, in part by charging fees. 



 
The developments underscore a deepening conflict over cash. Many businesses have large sums on hand and opportunities to profitably invest it appear scarce. But banks don’t want certain kinds of cash either, judging it costly to keep, and some are imposing fees after jawboning customers to move it.
 
The banks’ actions are driven by profit-crunching low interest rates and regulations adopted since the financial crisis to gird banks against funding disruptions.
 
The latest fees center on large sums deemed risky by regulators, sometimes dubbed hot-money deposits thought likely to flee during times of crises. Finalized last September and overseen by the Federal Reserve and other regulators, the rule involving the liquidity coverage ratio forces banks to hold high-quality liquid assets, such as central bank reserves and government debt, to cover projected deposit losses over 30 days. Banks must hold reserves of as much as 40% against certain corporate deposits and as much as 100% against some deposits from hedge funds."



'via Blog this'

Strategist: We're stuck in a 'Jerry Maguire' economy

Strategist: We're stuck in a 'Jerry Maguire' economy: "The Fed now faces the critical challenge of being the first major developed nation to return to normal monetary policy conditions following the era of quantitative easing, Schlossberg said.

"No central bank has been able to come back from QE, as far as we know in our history right now," he said. "The Fed is going to have to be first one to actually come out of QE.""



'via Blog this'

The September Jobs Report Was Even Worse: U.S. States Lost A Total Of 22,000 Jobs | Zero Hedge

The September Jobs Report Was Even Worse: U.S. States Lost A Total Of 22,000 Jobs | Zero Hedge: "As it turns out the sum was far greater than the parts, because according to today's BLS breakdown of jobs by state, not only did more than half, or 28, states lose jobs in September, but the total number of jobs losses, at 120,000, was about 20% more than the cumulative job gains of 99,000.

How that -21,000 total job loss when summing across all states compares to the alleged gain of 143,000 jobs at the consolidated level reported two weeks ago, we'll leave to the reader to decide, suffice to say that any and all data coming out of the BLS and not making sense, has become the norm."



'via Blog this'

Think your rent's too darn high? Just wait

Think your rent's too darn high? Just wait: "Think your rent's too darn high? Just wait"



'via Blog this'

NAHB homebuilders index highest in 10 years

NAHB homebuilders index highest in 10 years: ""Lower price point builders have outperformed the sector on numerous verticals this year, and we believe this outperformance should continue as home builders are rewarded for strong volumes (externally and organically) in the market as credit expansion continues to play a big factor," Compass Point analysts wrote in the report."



'via Blog this'

The Most Endangered Jobs of 2015 | CareerCast.com

The Most Endangered Jobs of 2015 | CareerCast.com: "Technology has had a major impact on several other jobs ranked among the most endangered jobs of 2015. More Americans choose to correspond via email or text message, dramatically slashing the amount of mail and reducing the need for postal services. Programs like PayPal also allow for people to electronically transfer funds they would have otherwise sent through the mail."



'via Blog this'

The Latest Evidence That Global Trade Has Collapsed: India's Exports/Imports Plunge By 25% | Zero Hedge

The Latest Evidence That Global Trade Has Collapsed: India's Exports/Imports Plunge By 25% | Zero Hedge:



"And so India finds itself in the same position as many other emerging economies in a world where trade is grinding to a halt: hoping that your own domestic demand for imported goods is even more abysmal than other countries' demand for the goods you export just so the current account doesn't collapse"



'via Blog this'

Is this the world’s most crowded trade?

Is this the world’s most crowded trade?:



"The liquidity of Nikkei futures can no longer adequately support the buying and selling of three leveraged Nikkei 225 ETFs trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, meaning that new money will no longer be allowed to flow into the ETFs, their operator, Nomura, announced late Thursday.

The incredible growth of these products — two of which are effectively short positions on the Nikkei, but the most popular of which replicated a leveraged long position — "indicates that long Japanese stocks and short yen could be the most crowded trade in the world," investor and CNBC contributor Brian Kelly wrote Thursday.

That means, in turn, that "if and when everyone decides to close that trade, the exit could be ugly," Kelly continued."



'via Blog this'

Repossessions spike 66% as foreclosure crisis lingers - But all is well....

Repossessions spike 66% as foreclosure crisis lingers: "Bank repossessions, the final stage of the foreclosure process, jumped 66 percent year over year in the third quarter of this year, according to RealtyTrac, a foreclosure sales and analytics company. It's the largest annual rise ever recorded in bank repossessions by RealtyTrac. More than 123,000 homes went back to the bank in just three months."



'via Blog this'

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 42 Year Lows, Despite Surging Job Cuts | Zero Hedge

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 42 Year Lows, Despite Surging Job Cuts | Zero Hedge: "Exhibit 3 shows our calculated breakeven rate for jobless claims, which we derived using data from the monthly JOLTS reports through July (we smoothed the breakeven rate for the purposes of this graph). Over the last few years, the breakeven level of jobless claims has steadily declined, reflecting an increase in job market separations (including quits) and a lower benefit take up rate. These trends were partly offset by an increase in gross hires. While it’s encouraging that unemployment insurance claims remain very low, they are not a sufficient indicator of labor market conditions. And at the moment, the raw level likely overstates the underlying pace of job growth. The gap between claims and their estimated breakeven rate—likely a better indicator of job market health than claims alone—points to payroll growth of about 160-200k per month, or only slightly above the run rate over the last two months."



'via Blog this'

US jobless claims fall 7K, revisit 42-year lows - And CNBC idiots say .....!!! - Truth in next post

US jobless claims fall 7K, revisit 42-year lows: "Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 255,000 for the week ended Oct. 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims were last at this level in July, which was the lowest since November 1973."



'via Blog this'

US producer prices post biggest decline in 8 months

US producer prices post biggest decline in 8 months: "U.S. producer prices in September posted their biggest decline in eight months as the cost of energy products fell for a third straight month, pointing to tame inflation that could argue against an interest rate increase this year.

The Labor Department said on Wednesday its producer price index fell 0.5 percent, the largest drop since January, after being unchanged in August. In the 12 months through September, the PPI fell 1.1 percent after declining 0.8 percent in August.

It was the eighth straight 12-month decrease in the index. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI slipping 0.2 percent last month and dropping 0.7 percent from a year ago."



'via Blog this'

US retail sales rose 0.1% in Sept vs 0.2% increase expected

US retail sales rose 0.1% in Sept vs 0.2% increase expected: "Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services slipped 0.1 percent after a downwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in August. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product."



'via Blog this'

Market on track for THIS bullish trend: Strategist - Market Call on trend

Market on track for THIS bullish trend: Strategist: "The stock rally that has taken hold over the past week could be a sign that markets are in the midst of a bullish trend, Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede Trust, said Friday."



'via Blog this'

According To Bernanke, This Was The "Biggest Impact Of QE" | Zero Hedge

According To Bernanke, This Was The "Biggest Impact Of QE" | Zero Hedge: "Are you ready for this... are you sitting down... you better be sitting down. Here it comes

BERNANKE SAYS BIGGEST IMPACT OF QE WAS TO 'CREATE JOBS'
just :0

 "







'via Blog this'

US weekly jobless claims at 263,000 vs. 273,000 estimate - HAHAHAHA !!!

All is fixed. We should be good to go from here !!!









US weekly jobless claims at 263,000 vs. 273,000 estimate: "The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell more than expected to a near 42-year low last week, pointing to ongoing tightening in the labor market despite the recent slowdown in hiring.

The data released on Thursday provides a more upbeat check on the health of the labor market after last week's monthly employment report increased doubts the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by the end of this year."



'via Blog this'

Amazon super powers Web services with data analytics

Amazon super powers Web services with data analytics: "Amazon Web Services is launching its most aggressive cloud data analytics software tool to date. The company unveiled "QuickSight," on stage Wednesday at AWS re:Invent, the company's annual convention in Las Vegas.

The move further emphasizes how Amazon sees cloud computing as crucial to its future. QuickSight is designed to make data analytics available and understandable to any employee making business decisions, no matter how technically advanced their skill level."



'via Blog this'

How Two Guys Lost God and Found $40 Million - Bloomberg Business

How Two Guys Lost God and Found $40 Million - Bloomberg Business:



"Zeines teamed up for a time with a trader named David Glass, who’d just pleaded guilty to insider trading and was famous in the cash-advance industry for inspiring the 2000 movie Boiler Room. Glass recruited the brokers, and Zeines funded the advances with his Second Source earnings, at rates as high as 750 percent annualized. The money was so good, Hurwitz was lured back; after about a year, everyone tired of sharing the profit. The two friends broke up with Glass in 2011 and started their own company, called Pearl Capital, after the street their building was on."



'via Blog this'

Safe Harbor Data-Sharing Pact Struck Down by EU Top Court - Bloomberg Business

Safe Harbor Data-Sharing Pact Struck Down by EU Top Court - Bloomberg Business: "A trans-Atlantic pact that potentially allows U.S. spies to get their hands on European citizens’ private data was declared invalid by the EU’s highest court, in a ruling that threatens to plunge Internet companies into a legal limbo.
Judges at the European Union’s top court struck down the so-called safe-harbor accord after an Austrian law student complained about how U.S. security services can gain unfettered access to Facebook Inc. customer information sent to the U.S."



'via Blog this'

This trend will someday be a $2 billion market - Esports and Gaming

This trend will someday be a $2 billion market: "ESports, watching others play video games in tournaments and, in some cases, betting on them, is one of the fastest-growing under-the-radar trends in media and entertainment, estimated to grow nearly 50 percent annually over the next five years into a multibillion dollar market."



'via Blog this'

South Carolina flood losses: $1 billion and rising

South Carolina flood losses: $1 billion and rising: "More than 2 feet of rain fell in some spots, prompting descriptions of a "1,000-year flood" — not because it historically happens that infrequently, but because the odds of it are so small that statistically it should only happen once a millennium. "



'via Blog this'

German industry orders fall on weak non-euro zone demand | Reuters

German industry orders fall on weak non-euro zone demand | Reuters:



"Contracts for German goods declined by 1.8 percent on the month, said the economy ministry. A Reuters poll had forecast a rise of 0.5 percent.

The data enhances a picture of waning demand from abroad, especially China and other emerging markets. That suggests the strong exports that supported growth in the first half could lose momentum."



'via Blog this'

Treasury Sells 3-Month Bills At 0% Yield For First Time Ever | Zero Hedge

Treasury Sells 3-Month Bills At 0% Yield For First Time Ever | Zero Hedge: "That is a 0% yield - for the first time ever - lower even than the auction right after Lehman's bankruptcy in Nov 2008."



'via Blog this'

Peak Manipulation: Resorting To Contradictory Headlines To Lift Stocks | Zero Hedge

Peak Manipulation: Resorting To Contradictory Headlines To Lift Stocks | Zero Hedge:



"When stocks absolutely and completely have to go up, there is only one thing for it: the spurious headline from Nikkei (aka the new owner of the Financial Times).

It is 2am in Japan but still, after Thursday's headline that:

 BOJ IS SAID TO SEE LITTLE IMMEDIATE NEED FOR ADDING STIMULUS

It is now time for the diametrically opposite:

 BOJ MAY NEED TO EASE AGAIN WITH FED DELAY, NIKKEI SAYS

and sure enough,



USDJPY jerks higher and US equities hit the day's highs."







'via Blog this'

Biggest Short Squeeze In 4 Years Leads To Longest Winning Streak Of 2015 | Zero Hedge

Biggest Short Squeeze In 4 Years Leads To Longest Winning Streak Of 2015 | Zero Hedge: "Biggest Short Squeeze In 4 Years Leads To Longest Winning Streak Of 2015"



'via Blog this'

Rally on! Dow soars 300; Nasdaq ends in the green for 2015

Rally on! Dow soars 300; Nasdaq ends in the green for 2015: "Rally on! Dow soars 300; Nasdaq ends in the green for 2015





 Evelyn Cheng | @chengevelyn
31 Mins Ago
CNBC.com



'via Blog this'

Homes as ATMs: It's starting again

Homes as ATMs: It's starting again: "Mortgage holders have gained about $1 trillion in home equity collectively over the past year. On an individual basis, borrowers doing cash-out refinances are taking an average $65,000, which is comparable to what borrowers did in 2006, the height of the last housing boom. While the jump is significant, the volume is still nowhere near where it was back then. In fact, volume is still 80 percent below where it was at the peak in 2005."



'via Blog this'

Dow Surges 650 Points Off "Dismal Jobs Data" Lows, Small Caps Up 5%! | Zero Hedge

Dow Surges 650 Points Off "Dismal Jobs Data" Lows, Small Caps Up 5%! | Zero Hedge: "Small Caps are up 5% off post-payrolls lows and The Dow is up over 650 points as the lower-for-longer, please-give-us-QE4 panic-buying ramp continues... and all this with no Bullard (for now).

Squeeeeeeeze...."



'via Blog this'

Former Fed Chair Says More Bankers Should Have Gone to Jail | TIME

Former Fed Chair Says More Bankers Should Have Gone to Jail | TIME: "“It would have been my preference to have more investigation of individual actions, since obviously everything that went wrong or was illegal was done by some individual, not by an abstract firm,” the Bernanke told USA Today in an interview published on Sunday."



'via Blog this'

Turnaround! Stocks stage massive swing

Turnaround! Stocks stage massive swing:



 "The news, which raised fresh fears about a slowdown in the U.S. economy amid a global slump and fresh questions about U.S. interest rate policy, initially sent the Dow down 258 points, or 1.5%.

But at the close, the Dow was up 1.2%, a 200-point gain for the day the day and a 458-point reversal from the low that CNBC said was the biggest such swing in four years."



'via Blog this'

Dow, S&P close up more than 1%, post biggest reversal in 4 years

Dow, S&P close up more than 1%, post biggest reversal in 4 years: "U.S. stocks closed more than 1 percent higher Friday, recovering from an initial decline of more than 1.5 percent, as investors digested higher oil prices and a weaker-than-expected jobs report.

"The poor employment report put a footing to the market because it provided a way for the market to understand where it is," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth. It "really did accomplish something even though it was weaker-than-expected. ... Now you have a market that I see is on better footing going into earnings season."
The major averages closed at session highs, with the Dow Jones industrial average up 200 points after earlier falling as much as 258 points."



'via Blog this'

The Farce Is Complete: Stocks Soar Most In 4 Years As US Job Market Disintegrates | Zero Hedge

The Farce Is Complete: Stocks Soar Most In 4 Years As US Job Market Disintegrates | Zero Hedge:



"But there was only one thing driving US equities today... USDJPY, which got the momo going:"



'via Blog this'

California roars back, but there's a 'dark side'

California roars back, but there's a 'dark side': "California was hit hardest by the recession, but the Golden State has come roaring back with a vengeance. A new tech boom, the housing recovery and a temporary tax increase approved by voters under Proposition 30 have led California out of a deficit and into a budget surplus. Unemployment has fallen from a peak of 12.4 percent to 6.1 percent."



'via Blog this'

Japanese Yen Manipulation in real time to prop up the stock market - When all else fails this is how you do it - in one pic

The Chart on the LEFT is the USD/JPY pair on a 5 minute chart.
The Chart on the RIGHT is the Nasdaq December Futures Contract.

At 10.00 am on 10/2/15 it was "ignition" with the Yen shorters. Almost instantly the market rallied. And the idiots on CNBC are looking for some good reason it happened....although they are well aware of what really happened.

Treasury Yields Are Crashing | Zero Hedge

Treasury Yields Are Crashing | Zero Hedge:



 "Bloodbath for a near record short net Treasury speculative position as rate-hike odds collapse and the entire UST curve plunges. The belly is collapsing 13-15bps (biggest drop in 5Y and 7Y yields since January) and the long-end is dropping significantly.  Between the 10Y highs of 2.0597% and lows of 1.9022%, the drop was 15.75bp - that is the biggest intraday drop since Sep 18, 2013, the day the Fed did not Taper."



'via Blog this'

Silver Spikes To Six-Week Highs On Heavy Volume - Biggest Jump Since Dec 2014 | Zero Hedge

Silver Spikes To Six-Week Highs On Heavy Volume - Biggest Jump Since Dec 2014 | Zero Hedge: "Precious metals are angrily bid this morning (even as copper and crude tumble) after the dismal US jobs data sent the USD reeling and raised expectations for moar QE down the line. Silver is up 5% on the day - the biggest daily jump since Dec 1st 2014 and gold is up 2.2% - its best day since April."



'via Blog this'

Payrolls Disaster: Only 142K Jobs Added In September With Zero Wage Growth; August Revised Much Lower | Zero Hedge

Payrolls Disaster: Only 142K Jobs Added In September With Zero Wage Growth; August Revised Much Lower | Zero Hedge: "And so the "most important payrolls number" at least until the October FOMC meeting when the Fed will once again do nothing because suddenly the US is staring recession in the face, is in the history books, and as previewed earlier today, at 142K it was a total disaster, 60K below the consensus and below the lowest estimate.

Just as bad, the August print was also revised far lower from 173K to 136K. And while it is less followed, the household survey was an unmitigated disaster, with 236,000 jobs lost in September."



'via Blog this'

US created 142K jobs in Sept vs 203K expected

US created 142K jobs in Sept vs 203K expected:



"The U.S. economy created 142,000 jobs in September, a number that missed expectations and could cool expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates soon.

Unemployment held at 5.1 percent, according to the Labor Department. A separate member that includes those who are working part-time for economic reasons or have not looked for employment fell to 10.0 percent.



 Economists had been expecting the report to show 203,000 new jobs, from the downwardly revised 136,000 in August (from the originally reported 173,000).

Fed officials have been keeping a close eye on the jobs number for clues about when it would be appropriate to raise interest rates for the first time in more than nine years. The unemployment rate has been declining steadily, but that has come in significant part due to the lowest labor force participation rate since the late 1970s."



'via Blog this'

CNBC - Everything is A-OK. Real world - Falling apart. 3 Headlines - Below

CNBC Headline



Fiat Chrysler sales jump 14 pct amid big sector expectations:



 ""The U.S. is adding jobs, disposable income is rising, energy prices and interest rates remain low and business continues to invest, but the fact remains this has been a slow recovery," said Mustafa Mohatarem, GM's chief economist.

"The economy still has room to grow and so do auto sales, particularly now that the millennials are entering the workforce and starting households," he added."



GM Channel stuffing obviously at all time high





Zero Hedge Headline at exactly the same time



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-01/does-not-compute-dol-continues-paint-rosy-jobless-claims-picture-challenger-sees-sur

Even more curious was the drop in Continuing Claims which declined from 2244K to just 2191K, below the 2,230K expected, suggesting tomorrow's NFP report should have no problem priting above 200K.

Which on the surface is great... and then one looks at the Challenger Job Cuts report released just an hour earlier, which painted a dramatically different picture. From theChallenger report:

The third quarter ended with a surge in job cuts, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to shed 58,877 in September, a 43 percent increase from the previous month, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The September total was third largest of the year behind July (105,696) and April (61,582). It was 93 percent higher than the 30,477 planned layoffs announced the same month a year ago.

In all, 205,759 job cuts were announced in the third quarter, making it the largest job-cut quarter since the third quarter of 2009, when planned layoffs totaled 240,233.

It gets even more confusing when looking at the full year trend, where one notices that so far in 2015, employers have announced 493,431 planned layoffs, 36 percent more than the 363,408 cuts tracked from January through September a year ago. The year-to-date total is actually 2.0 percent higher than the 2014 year-end total of 483,171. "The Q3 total was 40 percent higher than the previous quarter’s 181,213 job cuts. It was 75 percent higher than the third quarter of 2014, when 117,374 job cuts were announced."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-01/atlanta-fed-slashes-q3-gdp-estimate-50-just-09



Yesterday, when the Atlanta Fed boosted its Q3 GDP tracker from 1.4% to 1.8%, the permabulls were crowing how the global recession has been called off. We are confident they will be mysteriously mute, however, following today's dramatic revision lower which cut the number for the current quarter by half to just 0.9% as a result of the previously reported tumble in the advance report on U.S. international trade which slashed the Atlanta Fed's model contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points to -0.9%.



'via Blog this'

80% Of All New Home Buyers In Irvine Are Chinese | Zero Hedge

80% Of All New Home Buyers In Irvine Are Chinese | Zero Hedge:



"And here was the stunner in question: "We are seeing more globalization as Southern California has become a destination for international buyers," said Mark Hughes, chief operating officer with First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. "Eighty percent of new construction in Irvine last year was sold to Chinese buyers. International buyers are driving home prices up and sometimes out of reach for many local residents."

You read that right, a whopping 80% of all new housing in Irvine was bought by Chinese."



'via Blog this'

Liquidation Warning; Bottleneck Spotted - REIT | Zero Hedge

Liquidation Warning; Bottleneck Spotted | Zero Hedge: "The behavior of mortgage REIT’s lately embody a great deal of confusion about what they actually are and what that really represents. The first aspect to understand is that they are not participants in actual real estate, rather more closely aligned as a specialty financial firm akin to a non-registered bank. They make money as banks do (or supposedly they do in the textbook version) pocketing the spread between borrowing short (and ultra-short) and investing long (in mostly MBS)."



'via Blog this'

Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability - speech by Mark Carney | Bank of England

Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability - speech by Mark Carney | Bank of England:

"Since the 1980s the number of registered weather-related loss events has tripled; and
 
Inflation-adjusted insurance losses from these events have increased from an annual average of around $10bn in the 1980s to around $50bn over the past decade. 7
 
The challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared with what might come.  The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating broader global impacts on property, migration and political stability, as well as food and water security. 8
 
So why isn’t more being done to address it?
 
A classic problem in environmental economics is the tragedy of the commons.  The solution to it lies in property rights and supply management.
 
Climate change is the Tragedy of the Horizon.
 
We don’t need an army of actuaries to tell us that the catastrophic impacts of climate change will be felt beyond the traditional horizons of most actors – imposing a cost on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentive to fix.
 
That means beyond:
 
the business cycle; 9
the political cycle; and
the horizon of technocratic authorities, like central banks, who are bound by their mandates."



'via Blog this'

As Banks Retreat, Private Equity Rushes to Buy Troubled Home Mortgages

As Banks Retreat, Private Equity Rushes to Buy Troubled Home Mortgages:



"Within a month, the three-bedroom house that the Hubbards had lived in for two decades was auctioned off to another affiliate of Lone Star with the right to resell it later. The foreclosure was rescinded only after the couple went to court."



'via Blog this'

Speaker John Boehner will resign from Congress

Speaker John Boehner will resign from Congress:



 "The news came a day after the Ohio Republican shed tears while sitting behind Pope Francis as the pontiff addressed a joint meeting of Congress."



'via Blog this'

Not surprisingly, following the biggest plunge in biotech stocks in 2015 - many have speculated that the real goal of Shkreli's actions was to profit by shorting the biotech sector ahead of the selling which his action would have unleashed

Brilliant !

Mercenary but if that's what he did it was executed perfectly. Throw a bunch of popcorn into the air, get the minions steamed up, get the political vote chasing talking heads to claim they'll crusade, now you have everyone's attention....

Short the shit out of it quietly and walk away whistling !!


Same move that Goldman pulled when they bought all the empty warehouses in Michigan- hoarded Aluminum and created their own market by playing the rules on receiving and releasing aluminum in the commodity market

Following Public Fury, Jim Cramer-Trained CEO Who Raised Price Of Drug By 5000%, Agrees To Lower The Price | Zero Hedge

Following Public Fury, Jim Cramer-Trained CEO Who Raised Price Of Drug By 5000%, Agrees To Lower The Price | Zero Hedge:



 "Not surprisingly, following the biggest plunge in biotech stocks in 2015 - many have speculated that the real goal of Shkreli's actions was to profit by shorting the biotech sector ahead of the selling which his action would have unleashed "



'via Blog this'

Chase Mortgage CEO red flags FHA loans

Chase Mortgage CEO red flags FHA loans: "FHA requirements are down to a 520 FICO (credit score) and you only have to put 3.5 percent down; that's subprime lending, and we're not in the subprime lending business," said Kevin Watters, CEO of Chase Mortgage Banking."



'via Blog this'

Bullard Slams "Unsavory" Jim Cramer's "Permanent Cheerleading," Admits "Fed Can't Support Stocks Forever" | Zero Hedge

Bullard Slams "Unsavory" Jim Cramer's "Permanent Cheerleading," Admits "Fed Can't Support Stocks Forever" | Zero Hedge: "When The Fed's own cheerleader-in-chief (see October 2014) slams you for cheerleading, you know it's gone too far. In a stunning 30 second clip on CNBC this morning, St.Louis Fed head Jim Bullard sent a message to "your friend Cramer", saying "The Fed cannot permanently raise stock prices," adding, rather astonishingly to the anchors, "to have [Cramer] cheerleading for lower rates 24 hours a day is unsavory.""



'via Blog this'

Drug Goes From $13.50 a Tablet to $750, Overnight

Drug Goes From $13.50 a Tablet to $750, Overnight:



The drug, called Daraprim, was acquired in August by Turing Pharmaceuticals, a start-up run by a former hedge fund manager. Turing immediately raised the price to $750 a tablet from $13.50, bringing the annual cost of treatment for some patients to hundreds of thousands of dollars.



 "Doxycycline, an antibiotic, went from $20 a bottle in October 2013 to $1,849 by April 2014, according to the two lawmakers."

Cycloserine, a drug used to treat dangerous multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, was just increased in price to $10,800 for 30 pills from $500 after its acquisition by Rodelis Therapeutics.



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US weekly jobless claims total 275,000 vs 275,000 estimate - Yes We Have No Bananas - Again - Conflict in their own article

US weekly jobless claims total 275,000 vs 275,000 estimate:



"The economy added 173,000 jobs in August, the fewest in five months. Economists, however, dismissed the step-down from July's gain of 245,000 jobs as a technical distortion. A report on Wednesday showed job openings surged to a record high in July, suggesting solid labor demand in the near term.

Thursday's claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose 1,000 to 2.26 million in the week ended Aug. 29."



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US stock buybacks are killing economic growth

US stock buybacks are killing economic growth:



 "How they work is simple: Companies repurchase their own stock, inflating paper profits without producing anything of tangible value—such as investing in R&D, wages or plants and equipment. Since 2004 more than $6.9 trillion went into them, according to data compiled by Mustafa Erdem Sakinç of The Academic-Industry Research Network.

According to Goldman Sachs, stock buybacks will surge by 18 percent in 2015, exceeding $600 billion and accounting for nearly 30 percent of total cash spending.

Read MoreShare buybacks: Boon or boondoggle for investors?

A further deep dive into the trend reveals some startling facts. Excluding recession years 2001 and 2008, dividends and stock buybacks have represented on average 85 percent of corporate earnings since 1998, according to analysts at S&P. And stock repurchases worth almost $2 trillion have helped buoy the bull market since March 2009, according to FactSet data compiled for CNBC."



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